Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a slightly lower opening after stocks rallied to start the week following President Trump's claim that the U.S. and Iran have engaged in productive negotiations to end all hostilities. While the claims continue to be denied by Iran, reports of backchannel negotiations and President Trump's eagerness to reach a deal prompted a rebound rally that saw the S&P 500 and DJIA move above their 200-day moving averages, though they failed to close above the key technical level. 

The Wall Street Journal reports that the UAE and Saudi Arabia are supporting tougher measures against Iran, potentially moving closer to military intervention. 

Crude oil retreated 10% yesterday, which helped fuel yesterday's rally. Crude oil is currently back above the $90 per barrel mark, trading $2.80 (+3.2%) higher at $90.93 per barrel. CNBC reports that Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said oil markets have not fully priced in the effect of the Strait of Hormuz closure. 

Headlines are relatively quiet elsewhere, with little in the way of economic data or earnings releases this morning. 

In corporate news:

• Apollo Global Management (APO 107.82, -2.63, -2.4%) is capping redemptions at one of its largest private credit funds, according to Bloomberg. 
• CoreWeave (CRWV 83.40, +1.44, +1.8%) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA Securities with a target price of $100. 
• Gilead Sciences (GILD 137.13, -0.21, -0.2%) is set to acquire Ouro Medicines for as much as $2.1 billion. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a broadly higher showing on Tuesday. Japan's Nikkei: +1.4%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8%, India's Sensex: +1.9%, South Korea's Kospi: +2.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.2%.

In news: 

• China's National Development Reform Commission said that fiscal and tax support will be implemented if crude oil prices remain high.
• Alibaba, Baidu, and Tencent are planning capital expenditures of about $84 bln for 2027.
• Japan is planning to spend JPY800 bln on gasoline subsidies and may also intervene in the oil market through futures.

In economic data:

• Japan's February National CPI -0.2% m/m (last -0.2%); 1.3% yr/yr (last 1.5%). February National Core CPI 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 2.0%). Flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 53.2; last 53.0) and flash Services PMI 52.8 (last 53.8)
• South Korea's February PPI 0.6% m/m (last 0.7%); 2.4% yr/yr (last 1.9%)
• Australia's flash March Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (last 51.0) and flash Services PMI 46.6 (last 52.8)
• India's flash March Manufacturing PMI 53.8 (expected 56.8; last 56.9) and flash Services PMI 57.2 (expected 58.3; last 58.1)

Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2%,
Germany's DAX: UNCH, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.2%, France's CAC 40: +0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH.

In news:

• Flash March PMI readings from major regional economies showed unexpected expansion in the manufacturing sector while growth in services undershot expectations.
• European Central Bank policymaker Vujcic acknowledged that the risk of stagflation has increased.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 49.4; last 50.8) and flash Services PMI 50.1 (expected 51.1; last 51.9)
• Germany's flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.7 (expected 49.6; last 50.9) and flash Services PMI 51.2 (expected 52.5; last 53.5)
• U.K.'s flash March Manufacturing PMI 51.4 (expected 50.0; last 51.7) and flash Services PMI 51.2 (expected 52.8; last 53.9). March CBI Distributive Trades Survey -52 (expected -40; last -43)
• France's flash March Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.4; last 50.1) and flash Services PMI 48.3 (expected 49.2; last 49.6)