Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after some optimism surrounding a potential off-ramp to the war in Iran pushed oil and yields lower yesterday while stocks climbed. The market is looking at the inverse of that scenario this morning, with crude oil currently up $3.53 (+3.9%) to $93.85 per barrel, yields up 5-8 basis points across the curve, and a stock market that is on track for a lower opening. 

It is worth noting that yesterday's gains were tempered by various reports that Iranian officials denied any negotiations with the U.S. are underway. The Wall Street Journal reports this morning that Iran continues to attack energy infrastructure sites in the region to the ire of its neighboring Gulf states, while the Pentagon prepares to send more troops. 

As such, the market continues to face choppy action as the conflict unfolds without a clear resolution in sight. Even on recent upswings, the major averages remain pinned below their respective 200-day moving averages, suggesting it will take more than single-day retreats in oil to push them back above the key technical level. 

Corporate news flow is on the lighter side today, and the market is set to receive just one economic data point of note in the weekly initial jobless claims report (Briefing.com consenus 210K). 

In corporate news:

• SpaceX is eyeing a $75 billion IPO, according to Bloomberg. 
• Jefferies (JEF 39.00, -0.64, -1.6%) reported earnings of $0.70 per share, which may not be comparable to the FactSet Consensus of $0.89, and missed revenue expectations. 
• There is growing focus on externalities across social media companies after a judge found Meta Platforms (META 585.83, -9.06, -1.5%) and Alphabet (GOOG 286.09, -3.50, -1.2%) liable in a landmark social media addiction case, according to Yahoo Finance. 

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly lower showing on Thursday while markets in India were closed for a holiday. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: -1.1%, India's Sensex: CLOSED, South Korea's Kospi: -3.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.

In news:

• Concerns about potential helium shortages that would reduce chip production contributed to relative weakness in South Korea's Kospi (-3.2%). 
• South Korea will stabilize its bond market with excess tax revenue.
• Japan will announce a provisional budget for fiscal 2026 tomorrow with the amount expected to reach JPY8.6 trln.

In economic data:

• Japan's February Corporate Services Price Index 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 2.6%) and January BoJ Core CPI 2.2% yr/yr (expected1.6%; last 2.3%)
• Hong Kong's February trade deficit HKD64.2 bln (last deficit of HKD14.1 bln). February Imports 29.9% m/m (last 38.1%) and Exports 24.7% m/m (last 33.8%)
• Singapore's February Industrial Production -7.2% m/m (last 2.0%); -0.1% yr/yr (last 12.9%)

Major European indices trade in the red amid some renewed geopolitical uncertainty as Brent crude returns above $100/bbl while Iranian officials deny reports of negotiations with the U.S. STOXX Europe 600: -1.2%, Germany's DAX: -1.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -1.4%, France's CAC 40: -1.0%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.1%.

In news:

• Shipper Hapag-Lloyd warned that its 2026 earnings will likely show a yr/yr decline due to the conflict with Iran.
• European Central Bank policymaker Nagel said that a rate hike in April is an option while French Economy Minister Lescure hinted at incoming measures to offset high oil prices.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's February M3 Money Supply 3.0% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; last 3.3%), February Private Sector Loans 3.0% yr/yr (expected 3.1%; last 3.0%), and February Loans to nonfinancials 2.9% yr/yr (last 2.8%)
• Germany's April GfK Consumer Climate -28.0 (expected -27.3; last -24.8)
• France's March Business Survey 99 (expected 100; last 102) and Consumer Confidence 89, as expected (last 91)
• Italy's March Consumer Confidence 92.6 (last 97.4) and Business Confidence 88.8 (last 88.5)
• Spain's Q4 GDP 0.8% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.6%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 2.7%)