Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 58 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mostly lower note with South Korea's Kospi (-3.0%) and Japan's Nikkei (-2.8%) leading to the downside. There was little apparent change to the situation in the Middle East over the weekend, leaving some recent concerns in place. The Japanese yen briefly hit its lowest level against the dollar since mid-2024 before bouncing. The rebound followed the release of the Bank of Japan's latest Summary of Opinions, which did not show opposition to additional rate hikes. There was an increase in expectations for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia. Companies listed in China and Hong Kong reported a 3.55% yr/yr increase in profits for fiscal 2025.

• In economic data:
  • India's February Industrial Production 5.2% yr/yr (expected 4.7%; last 4.8%) and February Manufacturing Output 6.0% m/m (last 4.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -2.8% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.9%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%
• India's Sensex: -2.2%
• South Korea's Kospi: -3.0%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6%

Major European indices trade in the green despite a continued rise in energy prices that has Brent crude approaching $110/bbl. The European Central Bank plans to simplify the approval process for changes to internal risk models of banks in the fall. European Central Bank policymaker Lane said that the ECB will not hesitate to act. Germany will release its flash March CPI report atop the hour, which is expected to show an acceleration to 2.7% yr/yr from 1.9% in February.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's March Business and Consumer Survey 96.6 (expected 96.5; last 98.2)
  • U.K.'s February Mortgage Lending GBP4.84 bln (expected GBP4.10 bln; last GBP4.21 bln), February Net Lending to Individuals GBP6.80 bln (expected GBP5.60 bln; last GBP5.90 bln), and February Mortgage Approvals 62,580 (expected 61,000; last 60,250)
  • Italy's February PPI -0.4% m/m (last 1.5%); -2.7% yr/yr (last -1.6%)
  • Spain's February Retail Sales 2.2% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 3.8%)
  • Swiss March KOF Leading Indicators 96.1 (expected 101.1; last 103.8)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%
• Germany's DAX: +0.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.1%
• France's CAC 40: +0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.8%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%