Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 67 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note with South Korea's Kospi (-4.3%) falling to its lowest level since early February while India's markets were closed for a holiday. Japan's Tokyo CPI for March decelerated to 1.7% from 1.8%, but multiple companies have indicated plans for price hikes, suggesting that inflation will reaccelerate in the April reading. China's liquor giant Kweichow Moutai also announced price hikes. China's official Manufacturing (50.4) and Non-Manufacturing PMI (50.1) readings returned to expansion in March. South Korea is planning an extra budget of KRW26.2 trln to offset the impact of the war with Iran.

• In economic data:
  • China's March Manufacturing PMI 50.4 (expected 50.1; last 49.0) and Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 49.9; last 49.5)
  • Japan's February Retail Sales -0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.9%; last 1.8%), February Industrial Production -2.1% m/m, as expected (last 4.3%), February Unemployment Rate 2.6% (expected 2.7%; last 2.7%), March Tokyo CPI 1.4% yr/yr (last 1.6%) and March Tokyo Core CPI 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 1.8%). February Housing Starts -4.9% yr/yr (expected -4.5%; last -0.4%) and Construction Orders 42.7% yr/yr (last 5.7%)
  • South Korea's February Retail Sales 0.0% m/m (last 2.9%). February Industrial Production 5.4% m/m (expected 1.8%; last -2.4%); -2.2% yr/yr (expected 6.0%; last 6.8%). February Service Sector Output 0.5% m/m (last -0.2%)
  • India's Q3 trade deficit $87.40 bln (last deficit of $93.60 bln)
  • Singapore's February Bank Lending SGD893.6 bln (last SGD887.5 bln)
  • Australia's March Private Sector Credit 0.6% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%) and March Housing Credit 0.6% m/m (last 0.6%)
  • New Zealand's March ANZ Business Confidence 32.5 (last 59.2)

---Equity Markets--- 

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.6%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.2%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.8%
• India's Sensex: CLOSED
• South Korea's Kospi: -4.3%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%

Major European indices trade in the green amid reports that President Trump is willing to end the war with Iran without reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Eurozone's CPI accelerated to 2.5% yr/yr from 1.9% in the flash reading for March. The U.K. reported in-line growth for Q4 (0.1% qtr/qtr) while France's Consumer Spending (-1.4% m/m) decreased more than expected in February. European Central Bank policymaker Muller said that it is probable that rates will have to rise in the coming quarters while policymaker Kazimir said that the central bank will need to act decisively if the Iran war drags on. Germany's Economic Institutes lowered their domestic growth outlook for 2026 to 0.6% from 1.3% while the forecast for 2027 was reduced to 0.9% from 1.4%. The inflation forecast for 2026 was increased to 2.8% from 2.0% while the outlook for 2027 was increased to 2.8% from 2.3%.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's flash March CPI 1.2% m/m (last 0.6%); 2.5% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 1.9%). March Core CPI 0.8% m/m (last 0.8%); 2.3% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last 2.4%)
  • Germany's February Retail Sales 0.7% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last 0.9%). February Import Price Index 0.3% m/m (expected 0.7%; last 1.1%); -2.3% yr/yr (last -2.3%). March Unemployment Change 0 (expected 2,000; last 1,000) and March Unemployment Rate 6.3%, as expected (last 6.3%)
  • U.K.'s Q4 GDP 0.1% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.1%); 1.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.2%). Q4 Business Investment -2.5% qtr/qtr (expected -2.7%; last 1.1%), Q4 Current Account deficit GBP18.4 bln (expected deficit of GBP24.0 bln; last deficit of GBP10.7 bln). March Nationwide HPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.3%); 2.2% yr/yr (last 1.0%). Q4 Business Investment 2.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.5%)
  • France's flash March CPI 0.9% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 1.7% yr/yr (expected 1.6%; last 0.9%). February PPI -0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%); -2.4% yr/yr (last -2.3%). February Consumer Spending -1.4% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 0.4%)
  • Italy's flash March CPI 0.5% m/m (expected 0.6%; last 0.7%); 1.7% yr/yr (last 1.5%). January Industrial Sales -0.3% m/m (last 0.6%); -1.0% yr/yr (last 3.5%) o Spain's January Current Account surplus EUR2.73 bln (last surplus of EUR1.80 bln)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%
• Germany's DAX: +1.3%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.8%
• France's CAC 40: +0.7%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.2%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +1.3%