Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] Stocks rallied today as leaders from both the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to end the ongoing conflict that has sent energy prices soaring and stocks lower over the past month.

In the final session of March, the S&P 500 (+2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+3.8%), and DJIA (+2.5%) took back a considerable chunk of previous weakness, ultimately ending March with losses ranging from 4.8% to 5.5%. The month-to-date figure is notable given that the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran on February 28, which was a Saturday, meaning the war in Iran has been at the forefront of the market’s focus since the first opening bell of March.

Equity futures pointed to a higher opening this morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as reopening it could extend the conflict beyond the 4- to 6-week timeline.

Out of the gate, stocks climbed in broad fashion, with solid mega-cap leadership supporting growth at the index level, unlike yesterday’s session. Gains across the major averages doubled shortly after midday following a CNBC report that Iranian state media said the country’s president spoke by phone with the European Council. Iran is reportedly “prepared to end the war” with guarantees against further attacks, a call that has been confirmed by the European Council President.

In the wake of the reports, oil prices retreated modestly after a flattish morning, ultimately settling $1.77 lower (-1.7%) at $101.15 per barrel.

The energy sector (-1.1%) was a laggard as a result, while the utilities (-0.1%) and consumer staples (flat) sectors also went overlooked as the geopolitical optimism translated into a risk-on rally.

Tech and other growth-oriented sectors posted some of the strongest gains, with communication services (+4.4%) leading the sector leaderboard. Meta Platforms (META 572.13, +35.75, +6.67%) and Alphabet (GOOG 286.90, +13.76, +5.04%) extended their recent rebounds from last week’s lows that followed news that the companies were found liable in a social media addiction trial.

The information technology sector (+4.2%) posted a similar gain as NVIDIA (NVDA 174.44, +9.28, +5.62%) and other semiconductor stocks rebounded nicely after a weak showing yesterday. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+6.2%) reclaimed all of yesterday’s losses and then some, and onsemi (ON 61.92, +6.26, +11.25%) was one of the best-performing S&P 500 components.

Other outperformers included airlines and cruise lines such as United Airlines (UAL 92.07, +6.86, +8.05%) and Carnival (CCL 25.88, +1.92, +8.01%) as oil prices stabilized today, while stocks tied to bitcoin and gold also mounted solid gains.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+3.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) finished with gains similar to those across the major averages.

All told, today’s session marked a meaningful uptick in sentiment as talks of a ceasefire in the war in Iran gained traction, with Tehran now signaling a willingness to end the conflict under certain conditions—a notable shift from just days ago, when it had rejected ceasefire proposals outright. The S&P 500 captured its widest single-day gain since last May, a much-needed relief rally after several weeks of downward momentum. However, the situation in Iran has proven to be delicate, and oil remains above the $100 per barrel mark, highlighting that a definitive end to the energy shock is not yet a certainty.

The major averages will enter the first session of the second quarter pinned below their respective 200-day moving averages, though today’s rally moved them significantly closer to the key technical level.

U.S. Treasuries ended March on a higher note, continuing Friday's rebound off 2026 lows. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.80% (+42 bps in March; +32 bps in Q1), and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.31% (+35 bps in March; +14 bps in Q1).

• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.2% YTD
• Russell 2000: +0.6% YTD 
• DJIA: -3.6% YTD
• S&P 500: -4.6% YTD
• Nasdaq Composite: -7.1% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• January FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.1%
• January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 1.6% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to 1.9% from 1.4%
• March Chicago PMI 52.8 (Briefing.com consensus 54.8); Prior 57.7
• March Consumer Confidence 91.8 (Briefing.com consensus 88.0); Prior was revised to 91.0 from 91.2
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the headline numbers don't convey any abject concern among consumers about the Iran war, yet that concern showed up in higher 12-month inflation expectations, which jumped to 6.2% from 5.5% in February, marking the highest level since August 2025.
• February JOLTs - Job Openings 6.882 mln (Briefing.com consensus 6.795 mln); Prior was revised to 7.240 mln from 6.946 mln