Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a higher opening this morning after stocks posted their best single-session gain since May 2025 in yesterday’s action. The major averages captured gains of 2.5% or wider across the board amid reports that leaders from both the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to end the ongoing war.

Optimism surrounding a potential de-escalation has carried over to this morning, with Bloomberg reporting that President Trump estimates the U.S. will withdraw from Iran within two to three weeks, even if a deal has not yet been struck.

Crude oil is extending yesterday’s move lower, currently down $2.76 (-2.7%) to $98.62 per barrel.

The retreat in oil prices is likely also due to a Wall Street Journal report that the United Arab Emirates is seeking to pressure Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, by force if necessary.

President Trump will address the nation on Iran this evening.

Today will also be somewhat busier on the economic data front, which will include the release of the February Retail Sales Report (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%; prior -0.2%) and the March ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%; prior 52.4%).

The MBA Mortgage Applications Index for the week ended March 28 decreased 10.4%, from a prior increase of 10.5%.

In corporate news:

• OpenAI completed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation, according to Bloomberg.
• Microsoft (MSFT 376.25, +6.08, +1.6%) is reportedly in discussions with Chevron (CVX 204.06, -2.84, -1.4%) and an investment fund for a power plant in Texas, according to Bloomberg.
• Nike (NKE 47.05, -5.77, -10.9%) beat EPS expectations by $0.06 and reported revenues in-line, but trades sharply lower in the pre-market after the company said on their earnings call that revenues are expected to be down low single-digits, with “flattish” earnings over this period.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began April on a firmly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+8.4%) leading the way to the upside. Japan's Nikkei: +5.2%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.0%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.5%, India's Sensex: +1.7%, South Korea's Kospi: +8.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +2.3%.

In news:

• The market drew some additional encouragement from President Trump's comments that U.S. forces may be withdrawn from Iran within the next couple weeks.
• South Korean officials said that there will be no disruptions to the supply of helium and ethylene gas through the first half of the year.
• March Manufacturing PMI readings from China, Japan, and South Korea remained in expansion while Australia's reading indicated a contraction due to a shortage of materials.
• The Bank of Japan will reduce its bond purchases by about 8% in Q2, which was expected.

In economic data:

• China's March RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 50.8 (expected 51.6; last 52.1)
• Japan's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6, as expected (last 51.4). Q1 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 17 (expected 16; last 16) and Large Non-Manufacturers Index 36 (expected 33; last 34). Q1 All Big Industry Capex 3.3% (last 12.6%) and All Small Industry Capex -8.1% (last 0.1%)
• South Korea's flash March trade surplus $25.74 bln (expected surplus of $21.20 bln; last surplus of $15.38 bln). March Imports 13.2% yr/yr (expected 18.0%; last 7.5%) and Exports 48.3% yr/yr (expected 44.9%; last 28.7%). March Manufacturing PMI 52.6 (last 51.1)
• Hong Kong's February Retail Sales 19.3% yr/yr (last 5.5%)
• Singapore's Q1 URA Property Index 0.3% qtr/qtr (last 0.6%)
• Australia's March Manufacturing PMI 49.8 (expected 50.1; last 51.0). Flash February Building Approvals 29.7% m/m (expected 5.8%; last -7.2%); 14.0% yr/yr (last -15.7%). February Private House Approvals 0.2% m/m (last 1.7%)
• New Zealand's February Building Consents 2.7% m/m (last 2.0%)

Major European indices trade in the green amid overall improvement in geopolitical sentiment. STOXX Europe 600: +2.5%, Germany's DAX: +3.0%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +2.0%, France's CAC 40: +2.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +3.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: +3.2%.

In news:

• Most March Manufacturing PMI readings from the region's main economies remained in expansion despite the surging energy prices.
• Spain was an outlier, falling into contraction (48.7).
• European Central Bank policymaker Rehn said that the latest inflation reading was not a surprise and that a rate hike should not be seen as certain.
• Germany's economy minister urged a return to nuclear power.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's March Manufacturing PMI 51.6 (expected 51.4; last 50.8) and February Unemployment Rate 6.2% (expected 6.1%; last 6.1%)
• Germany's March Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 51.7; last 50.9)
• U.K.'s March Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (expected 51.4; last 51.7)
• Italy's March Manufacturing PMI 51.3 (expected 50.9; last 50.6). February Unemployment Rate 5.3% (expected 5.2%; last 5.2%)
• France's March Manufacturing PMI 50.0 (expected 50.2; last 50.2)
• Spain's March Manufacturing PMI 48.7 (expected 50.5; last 50.0)
• Swiss February Retail Sales 0.9% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last -0.6%). March Manufacturing PMI 53.3 (expected 50.5; last 50.0)