Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a lower opening this morning after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach an agreement this weekend, sending oil prices higher and reigniting concerns of a prolonged conflict. President Trump announced via Truth Social that the U.S. Navy will begin a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened further strikes against Iran.

Stocks are coming off a winning week in which the major indices each advanced by 3% or more following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran. The announcement resulted in solid gains across the major averages and a sharp retreat in oil prices, with some enthusiasm across mega-cap and the broader AI trade supporting the major averages.

Currently, crude oil is up $7.43 (+7.7%) to $104.00 per barrel.

While geopolitical developments continue to shape market direction in the near term, investors are gearing up for Q1 earnings season, with the major banks kicking off the action this week.

Today's economic data is limited to the 10:00 ET release of March Existing Home Sales (Briefing.com consensus 4.09 million).

In corporate news:

• Best Buy (BBY 59.94, -2.43, -3.90) trades lower in the premarket afterGoldman Sachs downgraded the stock to Sell from Buy with a target of $59.
• Fastenal (FAST 47.24, -1.93, -3.9%) reported EPS and revenues in-line.
• Goldman Sachs (GS 875.00, -32.80, -3.6%) beat EPS expectations by $1.08 and beat revenue expectations.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mostly lower showing to begin the week amid renewed concerns about the U.S.-Iran conflict broadening into a prolonged war. Japan's Nikkei: -0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.9%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.1%, India's Sensex: -0.9%, South Korea's Kospi: -0.9%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.5%.

In news:

• Oil prices climbed again, putting some pressure on JGBs, which lifted yields on most tenors to fresh cycle highs.
• Japan's trade minister Akazawa said that tighter central bank policy could held with inflation.
• China Securities Daily observed that demand for savings bonds has been hot, with many banks reaching their quotas quickly.
• ANZ now expects the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to hike rates in July, September, and October.
• South Korea's exports through the first ten days of April were up 36.7% yr/yr with chip exports jumping 152.0%.

In economic data:

• China's March New Loans CNY2.99 trln (expected CNY3.465 trln; last CNY900.0 bln), March outstanding loan growth 5.8% yr/yr (expected 5.9%; last 6.0%), and March total social financing CNY5.23 trln (expected CNY5.40 trln; last CNY2.38 trln)
• India's March CPI 3.40% yr/yr (expected 3.48%; last 3.21%)
• New Zealand's March Performance of Services Index 46.0 (last 47.6)

Major European indices trade with losses across the board after the U.S. and Iran failed to reach a peace deal over the weekend. STOXX Europe 600: -1.0%, Germany's DAX: -1.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.6%, France's CAC 40: -1.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -1.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.9%.

In news:

• . Brent and WTI crude oil have climbed back above $100/bbl, pressuring sentiment.
• Hungary will have a more EU-friendly government after a Sunday election unseated Prime Minister Orban's party.
• Germany's economic ministry expects that high energy prices, supply issues, and economic pressures will persist for the remainder of the year.
• Standard & Poor's affirmed the U.K.'s AA rating with a Stable outlook.

There is no economic data of note.