Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade nine points above fair value.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11 decreased by 11,000 to 207,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 31,000 to 1.818 million, but the four-week moving average of 1,813,250 is the lowest since June 1, 2024.

The key takeaway from the report is that it refutes any notion that the labor market is cracking in a way that will lock up discretionary spending. Initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—continue to run at historically low levels.

The Philadelphia Fed Index jumped to 26.7 in April (Briefing.com consensus: 12.7) from 18.1 in March. The dividing line between expansion and contraction for this series is 0.0, so the April reading implies manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed region accelerated versus the prior month.

The key takeaway from the report is that price increases have become more widespread, yet the demand is still there, evidenced by a pickup in the new orders index to 33.0 from 8.6.