Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a lower open. There is finger-pointing at rising oil prices ($93.99, +1.03, +1.1%) and concerns about the Iran situation. That is part of it, but profit taking after a huge run to record highs in a short amount of time and disappointing price action in several influential stocks following their earnings reports, namely Tesla (TSLA), IBM (IBM), Honeywell (HON), and ServiceNow (NOW), is a larger part of it.

Another headwind is the 10-yr note yield, which has quietly moved back above 4.30% again, currently at 4.32%.

The stock market has seen its share of indications for lower opens, only to regroup quickly and spring back into positive territory on buy-the-dip action. Traders will be watching to see if that trend remains their friend today or decides to turn a cold shoulder and defies the buy-the-dip impulse.

Today's economic calendar features the weekly Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims report at 8:30 a.m. ET followed by the preliminary S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI readings for April at 9:45 a.m. ET.

In corporate news:

• American Airlines (AAL 11.42, -0.08, -0.7%) beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line; guides Q2 EPS in-line, revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS above consensus
• American Express (AXP 333.00, +0.10, +0.03%) beats by $0.28, beats on revs; reaffirms FY26 EPS guidance, revs guidance
• Hasbro (HAS 99.98, +9.37, +10.3%) issues upside Q1 revenue guidance, reaffirms FY26 guidance
• Honeywell (HON 205.10, -14.87, -6.8%) beats by $0.13, misses on revs; sees Q2 EPS and revs below consensus; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line; selling Warehouse and Workflow Solutions business
• IBM (IBM 232.62, -19.24, -7.6%) beats by $0.10, beats on revs; expects Q2 revenue to be similar to full year guidance of more than +5% CC; reaffirms FY26 revs guidance
• Lam Research (LRCX 263.76, -1.79, -0.7%) beats by $0.11, beats on revs; guides Q4 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus
• Lockheed Martin (LMT 540.00, -15.43, -2.8%) misses by $0.30, misses on revs; guides FY26 EPS in-line, revs in-line
• Netflix (NFLX 94.47, +1.23, +1.3%) authorized the repurchase of an additional $25 billion of the Company’s common stock
• ServiceNow (NOW 89.12, -13.95, -13.5%) reports EPS in-line, revs in-line
• Tesla (TSLA 376.30, -11.21, -2.9%) beats by $0.06, beats on revs; Expects volume production of Cybercab and Tesla Semi this year and first large-scale Optimus factory will begin shortly in Q2;  expects $25 bln in CapEx in 2025; says expects to see significant increase in CapEx, but it is "well justified for a substantially increased future revenue stream"
• Texas Instruments (TXN 257.18, +20.87, +8.8%) beats by $0.32, beats on revs; guides Q2 EPS above consensus, revs above consensus

Equity indices in the Asia Pacific region had a mostly lower showing on Thursday, though Japan's Nikkei (-0.8%) and South Korea's Kospi (+0.9%) set fresh record highs. Japan's Nikkei: -0.8%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.0%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.3%, India's Sensex: -1.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.9%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.6%.

In news:

• The trading day started with some impulse selling that took place alongside a sudden jump in the price of oil amid speculation about renewed military action against Iran, but the speculation was never confirmed.
• SK Hynix reported strong results but its guidance did not live up to sky-high expectations.
• Bank Indonesia made no policy changes, keeping its policy rate at 4.75%.
• New Zealand's Treasury sees the potential for FY25/26 inflation reaching 7.4% in a worst-case scenario.

In economic data:

• Japan's flash April Manufacturing PMI 54.9 (expected 51.1; last 51.6) and flash Services PMI 51.2 (last 53.4)
• South Korea's April Consumer Confidence 99.2 (last 107.3). Q1 GDP 1.7% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last -0.2%); 3.6% yr/yr (expected 2.7%; last 1.6%)
• Hong Kong's March CPI 0.0% m/m (last 0.5%); 1.7% yr/yr (last 1.7%). March Unemployment Rate 3.7% (last 3.8%)
• Singapore's March CPI 0.5% m/m (last 0.6%); 1.8% yr/yr (last 1.2%). Core CPI 1.7% yr/yr (last 1.4%)
• India's flash April Manufacturing PMI 55.9 (last 53.9) and flash Services PMI 57.9 (last 57.5)
• Australia's flash April Manufacturing PMI 51.0 (last 49.8) and flash Services PMI 50.3 (last 46.3)
• New Zealand's March Credit Card Spending 2.1% yr/yr (last 1.1%)

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note while France's CAC (+0.2%) outperforms with automakers and consumer names contributing to the strength. STOXX Europe 600: -0.3%, Germany's DAX: -0.5%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.8%, France's CAC 40: +0.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3%, Spain's IBEX 35: -1.2%.

In news:

• Flash April Manufacturing PMI readings from the region showed an acceleration in activity but Services PMI readings from Germany (46.9) and France (46.5) pointed to contracting activity.
• The U.K.'s Debt Management Office lowered its FY27 debt issuance forecast to GBP246.2 bln from GBP252.1 bln.

In economic data:

• Eurozone's flash April Manufacturing PMI 52.2 (expected 50.9; last 51.6) and flash Services PMI 47.4 (expected 49.8; last 50.2)
• Germany's flash April Manufacturing PMI 51.2 (expected 51.4; last 52.2) and flash Services PMI 46.9 (expected 50.4; last 50.9)
• U.K.'s March Public Sector Net Borrowing GBP12.60 bln (expected GBP10.40 bln; last -GBP12.80 bln). Flash April Manufacturing PMI 53.6 (expected 50.3; last 51.0) and flash Services PMI 52.0 (expected 50.0; last 50.5). April CBI Industrial Trends Orders -38 (expected -34; last -27)
• France's April Business Survey 100 (expected 99; last 99). April Manufacturing PMI 52.8 (expected 49.5; last 50.0) and Services PMI 46.5 (expected 48.5; last 48.8)