Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a modestly higher opening this morning after the major averages finished little changed on Friday, though the indices captured gains of 3.0% or wider for the week.

Last week's rally was supported by some optimism that a ceasefire could be reached between the U.S. and Iran, as well as commentary from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, who noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored past the near term.

Developments on the geopolitical and energy fronts continue to drive headlines this morning, with Axios reporting that the U.S., Iran, and mediators are discussing a 45-day ceasefire agreement that could lead to the end of the war, though sources say the chances of striking a deal are slim.

President Trump said that if a deal is not reached by the Tuesday deadline, Iran will face a new wave of attacks against infrastructure sites.

Crude oil is down modestly to around $110 per barrel, though Bloomberg reports that Iran has rejected opening the Strait of Hormuz as a part of any ceasefire deal.

Elsewhere, corporate news flow is once again on the lighter side, coming off the long weekend, with Q1 earnings season looming ahead.

The 10:00 a.m. ET release of the ISM Services PMI (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%) is the only economic data release of note on today's calendar.

In corporate news:

• Strait of Hormuz traffic has reached its highest level in weeks, according to Bloomberg.
• Soleno Therapeutics (SLNO 52.46, +12.97, +32.8%) to be acquired by Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX 128.00,-3.60, -2.7%) for $53.00 per share
• Tesla (TSLA 364.00, +3.41, +1.0%) saw its March South Korea sales increase by 300%, according to Reuters.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note while markets in China, Hong Kong, Australia, and New Zealand were closed for holidays. Japan's Nikkei: +0.6%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: HOLIDAY, China's Shanghai Composite: HOLIDAY, India's Sensex: +1.1%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: HOLIDAY.

In news:

• Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi will travel to Australia to secure Japan's rare earth supply chain and discuss cooperation regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• China's government reported that its consumer goods trade-in program generated revenue of CNY433 bln in Q1.
• India purchased its first shipment of crude oil from Iran since 2019.

In economic data:

• India's March Services PMI 57.5 (expected 57.2; last 57.2)
• Singapore's February Retail Sales -4.1% m/m (last 6.0%); 8.3% yr/yr (last -0.5%)

Major European markets remain closed for Easter, scheduled to reopen tomorrow.

In news:

• The overall narrative has remained focused on the developments in the U.S.-Iran conflict with Iran facing a Tuesday deadline to loosen its grip on maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or face crippling strikes on its bridges and energy infrastructure.
• Meanwhile, the Bank of England is split on a best approach to the oil-related inflationary spike, according to FT.
• The Bank of Italy trimmed its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 0.6% while the outlook for 2027 was reduced to 0.5% from 0.8%.

In economic data:

• Spain's March Unemployment Change -22,900 (expected 10,300; last 3,600)