Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a modestly lower opening this morning as investors cautiously monitor the tenuous ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran.

In particular, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, which The Wall Street Journal reports has officials concerned that the ceasefire could be upended.

Additionally, Iran continues to lament Israeli strikes against the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, arguing that the ceasefire agreement extends to them as well.

Crude oil is currently up $4.09 (+4.3%) to $98.50 per barrel after retreating more than 16% yesterday.

Outside of the geopolitical realm, the market is set to receive a full slate of economic data this morning, including the February PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

In corporate news:

• Constellation Brands (STZ 148.60, -1.66, -1.1%) beat EPS expectations by $0.19, beat revenue expectations, and guided FY27 Eps below consensus.
• Meta Platforms (META 624.02, +11.60, +1.9%) and CoreWeave (CRWV 90.90, +2.00, +2.3%) expanded a $21 billion AI infrastructure deal.
• Walt Disney (DIS 98.87, -0.31, -0.3%) is planning to lay off as many as 1,000 workers under its new CEO, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Thursday on a lower note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.7%, India's Sensex: -1.2%, South Korea's Kospi: -1.6%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.'

In news:

• CEO of Japanese shipper Mitsui said that there should be more clarity about activity in the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, adding that there were no reports of tankers passing through the strait over the past 24 hours.
• Foreign investors rushed back into Japanese markets last week, making for a reversal from aggressive selling in the previous week.
• Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman continues expecting the Kiwi economy to grow in 2026.

In economic data:

• Japan's March Household Confidence 33.3 (expected 38.3; last 39.7) and March Machine Tool Orders 28.1% yr/yr (last 24.2%)
• Hong Kong's March FX Reserves $430.80 bln (last $439.30 bln)

Major European indices trade in the red amid some doubts about the lasting power of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire. STOXX Europe 600: -0.4%, Germany's DAX: -0.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2%, France's CAC 40: -0.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.2%.

In news:

• The Bank of England's Financial Stability Board noted that some stresses may be emerging in private credit. However, availability of credit to households increased in Q1 and is expected to increase again in Q2.
• G7 finance ministers will meet in Washington this weekend.

In economic data:

• Germany's February trade surplus EUR19.8 bln (expected surplus of EUR18.1 bln; last surplus of EUR20.3 bln). February Imports 4.7% m/m (expected 4.0%; last -5.1%) and Exports 3.6% m/m (expected 1.0%; last -1.5%)
• Spain's February Industrial Production -1.1% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last -0.2%)