Stock Market Update

The stock market is on track for a modestly lower opening as investors monitor ceasefire developments and assess a sizable batch of economic data.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 4 increased by 16,000 to 219,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 215,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending March 28 decreased by 38,000 to 1.794 million.

The key takeaway from the report is that continuing claims hit their lowest level since May 11, 2024.

The third estimate for Q4 GDP checked in at 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.7%) versus the second estimate of 0.7%. The revision primarily reflected a downward revision to investment. The GDP Deflator was 3.7% (Briefing.com consensus: 3.8%) versus the second estimate of 3.8%.

The key takeaway from the report is that it suggests the economy closed last year on a sluggish note; however, it wasn't quite as soft as it appears when taking into account that real final sales to private domestic purchasers were up 1.8%.

Personal income decreased 0.1% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following a 0.4% increase in January. Personal spending rose 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.6%) following a downwardly revised 0.3% (from 0.4%) in January. The PCE Price Index jumped 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) after rising 0.3% in January and was up 2.8% year-over-year, unchanged from January. The core PCE Price Index also rose 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) on the heels of a 0.4% increase in January and was up 3.0% year-over-year versus 3.1% in January.

The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects sticky inflation pressure before the Iran war started, so it won't sway the Fed from sticking with a wait-and-see policy stance.