Stock Market Update

The stock market remains poised for a mostly higher opening amid continued AI-related enthusiasm and a sizable batch of economic data.

Total retail sales increased 0.5% month-over-month in April (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a downwardly revised 1.6% increase (from 1.7%) in March. Excluding autos, retail sales rose 0.7% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) after increasing 1.9% in March.

The key takeaway from the report is that solid spending activity was seen across most retail categories in April, which is when consumers were digesting the gas price shock from the Iran war. Excluding auto and gasoline station sales, retail sales were up 0.5% month-over-month.

Initial jobless claims for the week ending May 9 increased by 12,000 to 211,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 208,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending May 2 increased by 24,000 to 1.782 million.

The key takeaway from the report is that, even though initial and continuing jobless claims were up in the latest week, neither has risen to a level that would ring alarm bells about a serious deterioration in the labor market.

There were some inflation alarm bells ringing in the import-export price index, however.

Import prices were up 1.9% month-over-month, leaving them up 4.2% year-over-year. Excluding fuel, import prices rose 0.8% month-over-month and were up 2.9% year-over-year. Export prices jumped 3.3% month-over-month, leaving them up 8.8% year-over-year. Excluding agricultural products, export prices advanced 3.4% month-over-month and were up 9.3% year-over-year.