Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 23 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mixed showing on Thursday with Japan's Nikkei (-1.0%) hitting a fresh record before reversing while South Korea's Kospi (+1.8%) finished at a fresh record high. The U.S. delegation led by President Trump met with Chinese leadership today. Today's discussions were reportedly pleasant with the two sides aiming to build a constructive relationship of strategic stability. Japan sold 30-yr JGBs to solid demand and a Bank of Japan policymaker said that a rate hike should happen as quickly as possible. South Korea's President Lee requested a bilateral currency swap line with the U.S. Treasury.

• In economic data:
  • China's April New Loans -CNY10.0 bln (expected CNY320.0 bln; last CNY2.99 trln), April Outstanding Loan Growth 5.6% yr/yr (expected 5.8%; last 5.8%), and April Total Social Financing CNY620.0 bln (expected CNY1.50 trln; last CNY5.23 trln)
  • Japan's April M2 Money Stock 2.3% yr/yr (expected 1.9%; last 2.0%)
  • India's April WPI Inflation 8.30% yr/yr (expected 4.40%; last 3.88%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.0%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: UNCH
• China's Shanghai Composite: -1.5%
• India's Sensex: +1.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.8%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%

Major European indices trade in positive territory while several smaller markets are closed for Ascension Day. Reports from the U.K. indicate that Prime Minister Starmer could face an imminent leadership challenge. It is unclear if Chancellor Reeves would maintain her post in the event of a leadership change. European Central Bank policymaker Kazaks said that the full impact of the Iran war on inflation is not visible yet and that the situation is a bit worse than the ECB's baseline scenario.

• In economic data:
  • U.K.'s Q1 GDP 0.6% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%); 1.1% yr/yr (expected 0.8%; last 1.0%). March GDP 0.3% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.4%), March Industrial Production -0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.3%); 0.0% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last -0.5%). March Manufacturing Production 1.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 0.0%; last -0.8%). March trade deficit GBP27.22 bln (expected deficit of GBP19.80 bln; last deficit of GBP22.80 bln). Q1 Business Investment 0.7% qtr/qtr (expected 1.1%; last -2.9%); -1.8% yr/yr (last 1.8%)
  • Spain's April CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 1.2%); 3.2% yr/yr, as expected (last 3.4%). April Core CPI 2.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.6%
• Germany's DAX: +1.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%
• France's CAC 40: +0.8%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.9%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.8%