Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 73 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region had a mixed showing on Thursday with Japan's Nikkei (+4.6%) settling at a fresh record high while Hong Kong's Hang Seng (-1.4%) fell to its lowest level since May 2025. Chip-related names were at the forefront of the overnight strength with SK Hynix, Samsung, and Kioxia leading the way after strong results from Micron. Bank of Japan policymaker Tamura said that the central bank needs to keep hiking rates every few months until reaching the neutral rate of about 2%. Japan's Prime Minister Takaichi said that her government is forming a plan for Japan to become an asset management nation. Thailand's central bank left its policy rate at 1.00%.

• In economic data:
  • Japan's April Leading Index 116.1 (expected 115.9; last 114.0) and Coincident Indicator 1.3% m/m (expected 1.1%; last 0.2%)
  • Australia's May Employment Change 40,300 (expected 31,200; last -40,700), May full employment change 5,200 (last -21,700), May Unemployment Rate 4.4%, as expected (last 4.5%), and May Participation Rate 66.7% (expected 66.7%; last 66.6%)
  • Hong Kong's May trade deficit HKD44.2 bln (last deficit of HKD29.5 bln). May Imports 42.0% m/m (last 44.4%) and Exports 40.8% m/m (last 42.9%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +4.6%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.4% 
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%
• India's Sensex: +0.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: +5.4%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%

Major European indices trade in the green. Reports from the U.K. indicate that support continues forming around Andy Burnham to become the next prime minister. Discount air carrier EasyJet rejected the fourth takeover offer from Castlelake. Germany is planning to sell $138 bln of debt in Q3. European Central Bank policymaker Schnabel said that there has been an improvement in the short-term situation, but more rate hikes are needed.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's July GfK Consumer Climate -29.2 (expected -27.8; last -29.7)
  • U.K.'s June CBI Distributive Trades Survey -54 (expected -41; last -46)
  • France's June Consumer Confidence 84 (expected 83; last 82)
  • Italy's April Industrial Sales 0.3% m/m (last 1.8%); 3.2% yr/yr (last 4.2%)
  • Spain's Q1 GDP 0.6% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.8%); 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.7%). May PPI 10.5% yr/yr (last 8.3%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%
• Germany's DAX: +1.1%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.8%
• France's CAC 40: +0.6%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%