Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a mixed opening this morning in what is set to be a session full of notable catalysts.

The major averages are coming off a losing session to start the week, in which a sharp pullback across weighty semiconductor names combined with a surge in oil prices that pressured pockets of the broader market. So far this morning, semiconductors are reclaiming some of their previous losses, though oil prices continue to climb as President Trump officially notified Congress of a new war with Iran, according to Politico.

It is not surprising then that futures tied to the Nasdaq are outperforming those tied to the S&P 500 and DJIA, though the gap is particularly wide due to IBM (IBM 218.00, -70.94, -24.4%) trading sharply lower this morning after issuing downside guidance.

On a related note, a slate of major banking names are reporting their earnings this morning, with most easily topping expectations.

The market will also receive some important economic data today in the form of the June CPI print (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%). Investors will look for any signals that oil-driven inflation is easing, particularly after Fed Governor Christopher Waller (voting FOMC member) said yesterday that elevated inflation could induce a near-term rate hike.

The market will also hear from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh today as he testifies before the House Financial Services Committee. .

In corporate news:

• Goldman Sachs (GS 1,064.00, +18.09, +2.3%) beat EPS expectations by $6.47 and beat revenue expectations.
• IBM (IBM 218.00, -70.94, -24.4%) issued downside guidance for Q2 (Jun), sees EPS of $2.93 vs. $3.01 FactSet Consensus; sees Q2 (Jun) revs of $17.2 billion vs. $17.86 billion FactSet Consensus.
• JPMorgan Chase (JPM 326.00, -8.53, -2.6%) beat EPS expectations by $2.11 and beat revenue expectations.
• NVIDIA (NVDA 206.33, +2.80, +1.4%) cuts authorized Asian artificial intelligence customers by 50% as part of an attempt to crack down on its products being smuggled into China, according to Financial Times.

Reviewing overnight developments:

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+0.7%) recording a modest gain after touching its lowest level since late April. Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.4%, India's Sensex: -0.7%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH.

In news:

• China's trade surplus was larger than expected in June thanks to strong export growth with the dollar-denominated surplus exceeding its prior record from December 2025.
• Japanese debt outperformed after Finance Minister Katayama said that JGBs should be included in Nippon Individual Savings Accounts.

In economic data

• China's June trade surplus $125.62 bln (expected surplus of $119.50 bln; last surplus of $105.43 bln). June Imports 36.0% yr/yr (expected 24.0%; last 27.4%) and Exports 27.0% yr/yr (expected 18.2%; last 19.4%)
• Japan's May Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%) and Capacity Utilization 0.1% m/m (last -0.8%)
• Australia's July Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.1% (last -2.9%). June NAB Business Confidence -5 (last -14) and NAB Business Survey 3 (last 3)
• New Zealand's Q2 NZIER Business Confidence 8% (last -4%)
• India's June WPI Inflation 9.87% yr/yr (expected 9.15%; last 9.68%)

Major European indices trade in the red with travel-related names among the laggards due to the continued rise in the price of oil. STOXX Europe 600: -0.6%, Germany's DAX: -0.7%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.3%, France's CAC 40: -0.8%, Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: -0.9%.

In news:

• Bank of England Governor Bailey told the U.K. Treasury that risks to financial stability have increased.
• Germany's Economy Ministry observed some stabilization in the German economy at the mid-year point.
• Hapag-Lloyd raised its guidance for the year due to strong demand and high freight rates.

In economic data:

• Germany's June WPI -0.7% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 4.9% yr/yr (last 5.9%)
• Swiss June PPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; last -0.4%); -2.1% yr/yr (last -1.8%)