Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 12 points above fair value.

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly higher note with South Korea's Kospi (+0.7%) recording a modest gain after touching its lowest level since late April. China's trade surplus was larger than expected in June thanks to strong export growth with the dollar-denominated surplus exceeding its prior record from December 2025. Japanese debt outperformed after Finance Minister Katayama said that JGBs should be included in Nippon Individual Savings Accounts.

• In economic data:
  • China's June trade surplus $125.62 bln (expected surplus of $119.50 bln; last surplus of $105.43 bln). June Imports 36.0% yr/yr (expected 24.0%; last 27.4%) and Exports 27.0% yr/yr (expected 18.2%; last 19.4%)
  • Japan's May Industrial Production 0.1% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%) and Capacity Utilization 0.1% m/m (last -0.8%)
  • Australia's July Westpac Consumer Sentiment 4.1% (last -2.9%). June NAB Business Confidence -5 (last -14) and NAB Business Survey 3 (last 3)
  • New Zealand's Q2 NZIER Business Confidence 8% (last -4%)
  • India's June WPI Inflation 9.87% yr/yr (expected 9.15%; last 9.68%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.7%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.5%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +1.4%
• India's Sensex: -0.7%
• South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH

Major European indices trade in the red with travel-related names among the laggards due to the continued rise in the price of oil. Bank of England Governor Bailey told the U.K. Treasury that risks to financial stability have increased. Germany's Economy Ministry observed some stabilization in the German economy at the mid-year point. Hapag-Lloyd raised its guidance for the year due to strong demand and high freight rates.

• In economic data:
  • Germany's June WPI -0.7% m/m (expected 0.5%; last -0.6%); 4.9% yr/yr (last 5.9%)
  • Swiss June PPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; last -0.4%); -2.1% yr/yr (last -1.8%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.2%
• Germany's DAX: -0.4%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.1%
• France's CAC 40: -0.5%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.2%
• Spain's IBEX 35: -0.5%