Stock Market Update

Equity futures point to a flattish opening this morning as investors await a full slate of economic data and some consequential earnings reports after the close. The economic calendar is headlined by the August Personal Income and Spending report, which includes the PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consenus 0.4%), the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

Stocks are coming off a mostly lower session in which weak breadth and participation overshadowed a solid showing from semiconductor and other AI-infrastructure stocks. The major averages did recover from their session lows following dovish commentary from New York Fed President John Williams, a voting FOMC member, who indicated there was no urgency for another policy adjustment. Those remarks helped temper expectations for another rate hike, with the CME FedWatch Tool now pricing in a 43.7% probability of a hike at the October FOMC meeting, down from 70.9% before his comments.

The semiconductor group will remain in focus today, particularly with Micron (MU 1,067.95, +2.87, +0.3%) scheduled to report earnings after the close. The report should provide another important read on demand trends surrounding the AI infrastructure buildout following yesterday's relative strength in the group.

On the U.S. data front:

• 09/26 MBA Mortgage Applications Index -6.0%; prior -1.5%

Today's remaining economic calendar:

• 8:15 AM ET: September ADP Employment Change; Briefing.com consensus 58K; prior 38K
• 8:30 AM ET: August Personal Income; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%
• 8:30 AM ET: August Personal Spending; Briefing.com consensus 0.7%; prior 0.2%
• 8:30 AM ET: August PCE Prices; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.2%
• 8:30 AM ET: August PCE Prices - Core; Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%
• 8:30 AM ET: Q2 GDP - Third Estimate; Briefing.com consensus 1.5%; prior 1.5%
• 8:30 AM ET: Q2 GDP Deflator - Third Estimate; Briefing.com consensus 6.3%; prior 6.4%
• 8:30 AM ET: August Adv. Retail Inventories; prior 0.7%
• 8:30 AM ET: August Adv. Intl. Trade in Goods; prior -$118.8B
• 8:30 AM ET: August Adv. Wholesale Inventories; prior 1.3%
• 9:45 AM ET: September Chicago PMI; Briefing.com consensus 53.2; prior 47.1
• 10:30 AM ET: 09/26 EIA Crude Oil Inventories; prior +2.97M

In corporate news:

• Boeing (BA 192.12, +4.44, +2.4%) won a U.S. Navy contract worth over $20 billion to design, build and deliver sixth-generation F/A-XX aircraft.
• Jabil (JBL 310.10, -8.74, -2.7%) beat EPS expectations by $0.35, beat on revenues, guided Q1 EPS above consensus with revenues above consensus, and guided FY27 EPS above consensus with revenues above consensus.
• Robinhood Markets (HOOD 119.66, +3.44, +3.0%) is higher after unveiling AI-powered Robinhood Agents and plans for perpetual futures, earnings contracts and 24/7 weekend equities trading.

Reviewing overnight developments:

According to Nikkei, Asian markets finished mostly higher, supported by easing oil prices, stronger Chinese economic data, and renewed technology buying.

In news:

• Beijing announced additional stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies and expanded central-bank funding support.
• Mainland Chinese markets will be closed from October 1 through October 7 for the National Day holiday.

In economic data:

• China's September Manufacturing PMI 50.1 (expected 50.1; prior 49.8), Non-Manufacturing PMI 50.2 (expected 49.2; prior 49.0), and Composite PMI 50.7 (prior 49.5); September RatingDog Manufacturing PMI 52.1 m/m (expected 51.7; prior 51.5)
• Japan's August Retail Sales 2.7% yr/yr (expected 3.3%; prior 3.7%); August Industrial Production -1.7% m/m (expected 1.4%; prior -0.2%); August Housing Starts 6.1% yr/yr (expected 6.9%; prior 8.2%); August Construction Orders -3.6% yr/yr (prior -13.4%)
• South Korea's August Retail Sales -1.8% (prior -2.6%); August Industrial Production -4.8% m/m (expected 0.5%; prior 0.5%) and -2.2% yr/yr (expected 4.0%; prior 4.0%)
• Australia's August Building Approvals -6.1% m/m (expected -1.6%; prior -1.9%); August Monthly CPI Indicator 4.00% (expected 4.10%; prior 3.50%)

Equity Markets:

• Japan's Nikkei: +2.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.4%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.3%
• India's Sensex: -0.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: -0.5%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: +0.9%

European markets are mixed as easing energy-supply concerns provide some relief while fresh inflation data keeps the rate outlook in focus.

In news:

• Improved Middle East energy flows and another release from U.S. emergency reserves are pressuring crude prices.
• Investors are awaiting Germany's inflation data.

In economic data:

• Germany's August Retail Sales 1.3% m/m (expected 1.6%; prior -3.2%) and -0.4% yr/yr (expected 0.1%; prior -2.2%); August Import Price Index 1.0% m/m (expected 0.6%; prior 0.2%) and 8.3% yr/yr (expected 8.0%; prior 6.8%); September Unemployment Rate 6.4% (expected 6.4%; prior 6.4%); September Unemployment Change 12K (expected 1K; prior 5K)
• U.K.'s Q2 GDP 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 0.4%; prior 0.6%) and 1.4% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; prior 0.9%); Q2 Business Investment 1.8% qtr/qtr (expected 1.7%; prior 3.0%); Q2 Current Account -GBP19.9B (expected -GBP25.6B; prior -GBP21.1B)
• France's September CPI -0.3% m/m (expected -0.5%; prior 0.7%) and 3.0% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; prior 2.4%); August PPI 1.0% m/m (prior 1.3%) and 4.8% yr/yr (prior 3.5%); August Consumer Spending -0.5% m/m (expected 0.0%; prior 0.4%)
• Italy's September Consumer Confidence 91.2 (expected 94.0; prior 94.5) and Business Confidence 91.9 (expected 90.5; prior 90.2); September CPI 0.7% m/m (expected 0.2%; prior 0.5%) and 4.2% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; prior 3.3%)

Equity Markets:

• STOXX Europe 600 : -0.1%
• Germany's DAX : -0.2%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100 : +0.1%
• France's CAC 40 : -0.6%
• Italy's FTSE MIB : -0.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35 : flat