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Updated: 03-Sep-24 12:23 ET
Tesla's sales in China receive a needed jolt, while Robotaxi unveiling goes Hollywood (TSLA)
Intensifying competition and macroeconomic headwinds have created a speedbump for Tesla's (TSLA) sales in China, but the EV maker received a jolt in August as deliveries in the country jumped by 37% from July, according to Reuters. Price cuts and new incentives, such as interest-free loans, are helping to provide a spark for TSLA, while government subsidies for EV purchases continue to support the market as a whole.
  • Market share losses at the hands of other Chinese EV makers have been a prominent concern for TSLA shareholders, but it appears that the company made up some ground on some competitors in August. For instance, Li Auto (LI) reported that August deliveries fell by 5.6% month/month to 48,122 vehicles, while deliveries dipped by 1.6% month/month to 20,176 for NIO (NIO).
    • On the other hand, EV powerhouse BYD Company (BYDDY) reported that its vehicle sales surged by 35% to a record monthly high of 370,854.
  • Coming off a rough Q2 in which TSLA missed EPS estimates as deliveries skidded lower by 5%, some positive news on the demand side is a welcomed development for a stock that's down by about 20% on a yr/yr basis.
    • One concern that remains, however, is the issue of TSLA's eroding margins. In Q2, automotive gross margin slid by 180 bps yr/yr to 14.6% due to declining ASPs as TSLA ramps up incentives and price cuts. For some perspective, TSLA automotive gross margin in 2Q22 was 27.9% on a GAAP basis.

The acceleration in sales in China isn't the only news to hit over the weekend. Bloomberg reported that it will unveil the Robotaxi at a Warner Brothers Discovery (WBD) studio in California, rather than at one of its giga factories.

  • Originally slated for August 8, TSLA pushed the unveiling back to October 10 in order to make some design changes and to build more prototypes. With the setting taking place at a movie studio, the expectation is that TSLA will try to simulate an actual rider pickup and drop-off in a staged downtown area.
  • While there is certain to be plenty of pomp and circumstance surrounding the event, TSLA's Robotaxi isn't likely to move the fundamental needle for many quarters, if not years. TSLA has been pouring billions of dollars into its self-driving technology -- operating expenses increased by 39% in Q2 to nearly $3.0 bln -- but true autonomous driving capabilities aren't right around the corner. 

Lastly, Reuters also reported that TSLA is planning to launch a new six-seat version of its Model Y vehicle in China sometime in late 2025. Currently, the company only sells a five-seat model in China. The addition of a new six-seater could provide TSLA with a growth catalyst in China, especially since the Model Y is one of the most popular vehicles in China. Overall, this flurry of developments for TSLA are bullish, but the main challenges of rising competition and eroding margins still remain.

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