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Intuit (INTU -6%) ended FY25 with a solid earnings beat for Q4 (Jul), although it was not nearly the blowouts we saw in Q2-Q3. The guidance is the main reason why the stock is lower today. The mid-point of Q1 (Oct) was above range but revenue was light. We also got our first look at FY26 guidance, which was just in-line and some of the segment guidance was a bit weak. INTU focuses on SMBs and consumers (QuickBooks, TurboTax, Credit Karma, Mailchimp).

• Outside of tax season, its largest segment is usually its Global Business Solutions Group (mostly QuickBooks and Mailchimp). GBSG revenue jumped 18% yr/yr to $3.0 bln. INTU says its all-in-one platform is resonating with customers, particularly as it moves up market. INTU is making progress consolidating customers' data and spending. Robust growth in Online Ecosystem revenue was driven by both Online Accounting (+23%) and Online Services (+19%), fueled by higher prices, customer growth, and mix shift.
• Mailchimp has been a bit of a drag on GBSG segment revs. In Q4, Mailchimp revenue was down slightly yr/yr, in-line with expectations. Nevertheless, INTU is confident in delivering an all-in-one platform that integrates Mailchimp and QuickBooks. INTU expects Mailchimp to exit FY26 growing double digits.
• Its Credit Karma segment was a laggard in FY23, but recovered nicely in FY24 and that continued in FY25. Credit Karma revenue in Q4 grew 34% yr/yr to $649 mln. Personal loans accounted for 15 points of growth, credit cards 13 points, and auto insurance 5 points. INTU reiterated its long-term CK revenue growth expectations of 10-15%, reflecting the current size and scale of the business.
• Penetrating the mid-market has been a big focus for Intuit and it made good progress. It wants to serve large and more complex customers ($2.5-100 mln annual revs), which represent an $89 bln TAM. INTU believes it's just scratching the surface with its penetration in that addressable market.

So, why is the stock lower? There were definitely some positives, but Q4 is INTU's smallest revenue quarter each year, so maybe it gets a little less weight. Also, the upside was less impressive than Q2-Q3. More importantly, we think investors are viewing the Q1 and FY26 guidance as disappointing.

Q1 guidance was mixed while FY26 was just in-line. And when we drill down to the segments, it is a bit disappointing as well. GBSG guidance is for revenue growth of +14-15% vs 16% in FY25. Consumer Group growth at +8-9% in FY26 vs +10% in FY25. And probably most disappointing was Credit Karma with FY26 guidance of +10-13% in FY26 vs +32% in FY25. The stock had been declining in recent weeks before the report on concerns about FY26 guidance and it seems those concerns were well-founded.