Story Stocks®
With a quiet news cycle today, Radian Group caught our attention after being added to Briefing.com's YIELD Leaders rankings last Friday—earning a Top 5 spot. The company stands out for aggressively returning capital to shareholders, offering an 11.7% buyback yield and a 2.7% dividend yield.
Radian is one of the largest and oldest private mortgage insurers (PMI) in the US, with mortgage insurance premiums driving ~90% of its income.
- In Q2, Radian's primary mortgage insurance segment hit an all-time high of $277 bln in insurance in force.
- The mortgage insurance portfolio showed strong credit performance, with cures exceeding new defaults.
- The company sees a positive outlook for the PMI business, despite acknowledging affordability issues tied to limited housing supply and elevated home prices.
Recent declines in US mortgage rates, along with a 25 bps Fed rate cut last week and potential further cuts later this year, could support housing activity—a key tailwind for Radian, which is tightly correlated with housing market trends.
Millennials entering their prime homebuying years could sustain strong first-time buyer demand, especially given their higher likelihood of needing PMI due to lower down payments. The reinstatement of the PMI tax deduction starting in tax year 2026 via the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" is another potential, if modest, catalyst.
Briefing.com Analyst Insight:
Radian is an interesting YIELD play with long-term housing tailwinds. We like 1) the pent-up homebuyer demand, especially among millennials, 2) management's aggressive share buybacks, signaling confidence in the stock's value, and 3) the potential for lower rates to reinvigorate the housing market—possibly aligning with the spring 2026 selling season.