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United Airlines (UAL) delivered a record-breaking performance for 4Q25, overcoming a $250 mln pre-tax earnings headwind from the November government shutdown to exceed Wall Street's expectations. The company’s 1Q26 adjusted EPS guidance of $1.00 to $1.50 came in ahead of consensus at the midpoint, signaling continued strength into the new year, while the stock surged roughly 4% in response to the report.

• UAL reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $3.10, beating the $2.93-$2.97 analyst consensus, on record quarterly revenue of $15.4 bln.
• Premium cabin revenue grew 9% yr/yr in Q4, while loyalty revenue jumped 10%, highlighting the continued shift toward higher-yield, brand-loyal customers.
• Unit revenue (TRASM) decreased 1.6% yr/yr, which marked a significant improvement from the 4.3% decline seen in Q3 as the domestic capacity environment began to stabilize.
• Expenses were managed effectively despite rising labor costs, with CASM-ex (cost per available seat mile excluding fuel) increasing just 0.4% yr/yr.
• The 2026 outlook includes an adjusted EPS range of $12.00 to $14.00, which is slightly below the FactSet consensus estimate at the midpoint but projects a second consecutive year of record earnings.
• UAL's outlook appears brighter than that of Delta Air Lines (DAL), which reported results last week. while UAL's Q1 guidance beat expectations, both DAL's Q1 EPS guidance ($0.50-$0.90) and its FY26 EPS guidance ($6.50-$7.50) fell short of expectations at the midpoint of the ranges.
• UAL noted that strong revenue momentum has carried into the new year, with the week ending January 4 being the highest flown revenue week in UAL history.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight:

UAL continues to demonstrate the efficacy of its "United Next" strategy, successfully leveraging premium and loyalty growth to offset broader industry unit revenue pressures. The improvement in TRASM from -4.3% in Q3 to -1.6% in Q4 suggests that the industry's domestic capacity oversupply may be moderating, allowing UAL to capture better yields through its diversified revenue streams. While the FY26 guidance midpoint was a touch light compared to some more aggressive Street estimates, the underlying momentum remains undeniable. The record-breaking revenue week in early January indicates that demand has not yet hit a ceiling.