Story Stocks^®

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) is sharply lower after reporting its Q4 results last night. The company delivered a modest EPS beat, but revenue fell short of expectations at $1.28 bln (+27% yr/yr). HOOD also appointed Shiv Verma as CFO and outlined its 2026 expense plan aimed at accelerating product velocity, sustaining strong net deposit growth, and driving another year of profitable expansion.

• Total platform assets increased 68% yr/yr to $324 bln, with Q4 net deposits of $15.9 bln (a 19% annualized growth rate vs. Q3 ending assets) marking the 8th straight quarter above $10 bln, though that decelerated from Q3's 29% annualized rate.
• Transaction-based revenues increased 15% yr/yr to $776 mln, driven by other transaction revenue of $147 mln (+300% yr/yr), options revenue of $314 mln (+41%), and equities revenue of $94 mln (+54%).
• This was partially offset by crypto, where revenue fell 38% yr/yr to $221 mln as Robinhood app crypto notional volumes dropped 52% yr/yr to $34 bln.
• Prediction Markets continue to stand out, with volumes more than doubling in Q4. The business reached a $300 mln+ run-rate on 12 bln+ contracts traded in 2025 (its first full year), and momentum has continued with 4 bln+ traded in early 2026.
• Robinhood Gold subscribers rose 58% yr/yr to a record 4.2 mln, while ARPU increased 16% yr/yr to $191, as customers continue to adopt premium features and expand usage across new offerings.
• HOOD guided $2.6-2.725 bln in adj. OpEx for FY26, with more than half aimed at new and scaling businesses like Gold Card, Banking, Predictions, Tokenization, and Robinhood Ventures.

Briefing.com Analyst Insight

HOOD continues to show strong engagement and growth, highlighted by its 8th straight quarter with net deposits above $10 bln. That said, the quarter was not spotless. The revenue miss stands out and largely reflects a sharp step down in crypto revenue, which is likely weighing on sentiment amid the ongoing volatility in crypto markets. Net deposit growth also decelerated versus Q3, which may raise questions about sustaining its recent pace. That said, management sounded upbeat on newer growth drivers, especially Prediction Markets, which it believes is at the beginning of a multi-year supercycle. Early 2026 trends were also solid, with January equities volume up 50%+ yr/yr and options up 20%, and February daily volumes tracking above January so far. Overall, the longer term drivers and continued investment reinforce the story, but weaker crypto activity and a slower deposit pace are clouding the near-term setup.