Today's Free Feature

Overnight U.S. equity futures are edging higher after yesterday’s selling pressure, with the S&P 500 up 8 points (+0.12%), the Dow relatively flat, the Nasdaq higher by 51 points (+0.22%), and the Russell 2000 gaining 8 points (+0.39%). The modest recovery comes as markets brace for a flood of catalysts: Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data at 8:30 a.m. ET, the Treasury’s refunding announcement, the Federal Reserve’s policy decision this afternoon, and a wave of corporate earnings led by Microsoft and Meta after the close. Treasuries are flat-to-weaker, with yields ticking higher by 1bp, while the dollar takes a breather after four straight days of gains. Commodities are quiet: Brent crude is pulling back slightly after this week’s surge on Russian energy supply concerns, gold is modestly higher, and bitcoin is up nearly 0.7%.

In Europe, equities were under pressure earlier but have since turned flat-to-positive, with major Eurozone indices trading about 10bps higher. Sector leadership is coming from staples, luxury, industrials, and energy, while telecom, healthcare, chemicals, and autos lag. Notably, European autos remain a weak spot, with Mercedes and Porsche warning about tariff-driven cost headwinds, underscoring a theme of price increases across industries to offset Trump’s import taxes. European macro data offered some relief, with Q2 GDP and wage growth numbers coming in better than feared.

Asia delivered a mixed overnight session. Japan’s Topix rose 0.4% while the Nikkei slipped 0.05%. Hong Kong lagged with the Hang Seng down 1.36% and the HSCEI off 1.18%, while mainland China’s Shanghai Composite added 0.17% and Shenzhen fell 0.74%. Taiwan’s TAIEX gained 1.12%, South Korea’s KOSPI rose 0.74%, Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 0.59%, and India edged up 0.2%. The standout was Taiwan, where strong tech demand continues to buoy sentiment. Asian weakness in Hong Kong reflects ongoing capital outflows and geopolitical tension, factors that could bleed into U.S. tech sentiment given the region’s supply chain ties.

Corporate earnings are in focus this morning, with results shaping sentiment across sectors:

• Visa (V) – Strong FQ3 EPS of $2.98 vs. $2.85 consensus; revenue +14% to $10.17B. Consumer spending described as resilient, though unchanged full-year guidance was seen as modestly disappointing.
• Booking Holdings (BKNG) – Q2 EPS beat ($55.40 vs. $50.32 est.) and revenue +16% YoY; however, Q3 revenue growth guide (7–9%) fell short of higher Street hopes.
• Starbucks (SBUX) – Q3 EPS miss, but U.S. and China comps weren’t as weak as feared; CEO Niccol said turnaround is “ahead of schedule.” Stock bouncing premarket.
• Mondelez (MDLZ) – EPS beat (73c vs. 68c est.) and organic sales growth, but GMs fell sharply (-680bp YoY) amid cocoa cost inflation. Shares softer.
• Seagate (STX) – EPS beat ($2.59 vs. $2.45 est.) but FQ1 guide a bit light. Margins surged +700bp YoY. Shares down premarket.
• Qorvo (QRVO) – Beat and bullish FQ2 guide; shares up double digits.
• Teradyne (TER) – Modest EPS/revenue beat (57c/$652M vs. 54c/$651M est.), but Q3 guidance midpoints below expectations. Shares rallying nonetheless.
• PPG Industries (PPG) – Inline EPS at $2.22; reiterated full-year outlook.
• Caesars (CZR) – EBITDA miss ($955M vs. $965M est.) on weakness in Vegas and regional, partially offset by digital.

The day’s marquee earnings will come after the close, when Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) report. Both are key tests for mega-cap tech sentiment given their outsized role in 2025’s equity rally. Other names to watch include Qualcomm, Arm Holdings, Lam Research, Robinhood, Carvana, Vertiv, and eBay.

On the policy front, today’s FOMC decision looms large. The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged at 4.25–4.50%, but the statement and Powell’s press conference could lean dovish. Futures markets are pricing ~70% odds of a September cut. Importantly, Fed unity is fraying: Governors Waller and Bowman may dissent, marking a rare dual Board-level split (1993 was the last time we saw two Fed governors dissent). With labor market data softening, tariffs raising selective price pressures, and housing data cooling inflation, Powell will need to walk a tightrope. Political pressure adds fuel, as Trump has publicly pushed for cuts and threatened Powell’s position. Markets will be parsing whether Powell hints at a September move.

Recent market trends suggest cautious consolidation. After a strong July run, equities are cooling amid uncertainty around tariffs and the Fed. Breadth has narrowed, with defensive and low-volatility sectors outperforming in recent sessions. Investors are watching whether today’s data and Fed commentary unlock another leg higher or reinforce the recent stall. Bond yields remain elevated but stable after Tuesday’s rally, while the dollar has paused after a strong run. Risk appetite isn’t euphoric but is certainly restrained, reflecting an investor base waiting for clarity.

In sum, the overnight tone is one of cautious optimism. Futures are green, Europe is stabilizing, and Asia was mixed, but the real action begins with the morning’s GDP/PCE prints and culminates in Powell’s press conference this afternoon. Between mega-cap earnings and the Fed, today has all the ingredients to set the tone for August.

Internals/breadth should be evaluated to determine which set-ups will offer the greatest probability of success. Tracking sector and industry performance can also help significantly. Take the time to scroll through the charts and find those candidates with recognizable and clear technical patterns. Note on days where a scan results in too many stocks (20+), then those with lower volatility and volume with be filtered out.

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* ETFs are boldfaced

*This is based upon Daily and Weekly indicators and price action of the SPY.  It is not to be used as an exact "timing" system due to the lagging nature of trend-changes, however, it is best used to establish an intermediate-term Long/Short "bias" based upon strong or weak momentum and trends.  It can be subject to "false" or short-lived signals on occasion due to unforeseen news/events, especially if there are "gap" days that reverse through the prior day or week's range.   
**Signals are color-coded accordingly:  GREEN = Bullish/Upward Momentum Bias    YELLOW = Neutral/Flat Momentum    RED = Bearish/Downward Momentum Bias