Weekly Wrap

The equity market regained its footing this week, lifted by a persistent "buy the dip" mentality, resilient earnings sentiment, and renewed leadership from mega-cap stocks. After last week’s pullback, the S&P 500 rose 2.4% to finish just shy of a new all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq Composite surged 3.9% to notch a new record. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 1.4%, the Russell 2000 rose 2.4%, and the S&P Midcap 400 advanced 0.6%.

Strong gains in Apple (AAPL, +8.4% week-to-date), which announced a $100 billion increase in U.S. manufacturing investment, were a major driver of index-level strength. Mega-cap momentum was evident across the board, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF climbing 3.6% for the week. The market-weighted S&P 500 (+2.4%) far outpaced the equal-weighted S&P 500, which rose just 0.8%, underscoring the narrow leadership of the rally.

Most S&P 500 sectors participated in the rebound. The information technology sector led with a 4.3% gain, followed by the consumer discretionary (+3.8%), communication services (+3.3%), consumer staples (+3.1%), and materials (+2.4%) sectors. The fiinancials sector rose 0.7%, and utilities added 0.4%. Real estate (-0.1%), energy (-1.0%), and health care (-0.8%) were the only sectors to post losses.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index increased a modest 0.8% despite early-week excitement following President Trump’s announcement that chipmakers committed to domestic production would be exempt from upcoming 100% tariffs. NVIDIA  (NVDA) hit a new record high, while enthusiasm around domestic tech investment helped offset weakness in several names following mixed earnings results.

Treasury yields rose modestly this week, giving back some of their post-nonfarms payrolls report gains . The 2-year yield increased six basis points to 3.76%, and the 10-year yield rose seven basis points to 4.29%. St. Louis Fed President Musalem, a current FOMC voter, said inflation pressures may persist due to tariffs and that it appears appropriate for the Fed to maintain its current policy rate, though he added he remains open-minded.

There were notable developments regarding President Trump’s anticipated Federal Reserve Board nominations this week.

Reports indicated that Fed Governor Christopher Waller is emerging as a top candidate for Fed Chair, though no official announcement has been made. President Trump also appointed Dr. Stephen Miran to fill the recently vacated Fed Board seat of Adriana Kugler temporarily through January 31, 2026, while the search for a permanent replacement continues.

Additionally, reports surfaced that James Bullard, former St. Louis Fed president, and Marc Summerlin, a former economic adviser under the Bush administration, have been added to the shortlist for Fed Chair consideration alongside Kevin Hassett, Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. Treasury Secretary Bessent has reportedly withdrawn his name from consideration.

These moves underscore ongoing uncertainty about the Fed’s leadership direction amid a complex economic environment shaped by tariffs and inflation concerns.

While the week lacked major macro catalysts, the market digested a steady flow of earnings and trade headlines, including the rollout of higher tariff rates on several key trading partners and a tentative summit scheduled between President Trump and President Putin. Reports that U.S. Customs may begin imposing a 39% tariff on certain gold bars briefly unsettled markets, though the White House later clarified that standard bullion would be exempt.

Altogether, this week marked a clear return to risk-on sentiment, driven primarily by mega-cap tech and resilient consumer demand. Still, the widening gap between market-weighted and equal-weighted performance points to a rally that remains heavily dependent on a handful of names.

• Nasdaq Composite +3.9% for the week/ +11.0% YTD
• S&P 500 +2.4% for the week / +8.6% YTD
• Russell 2000: +2.4% for the week/ -0.5% YTD
• DJIA: +1.4% for the week/ +3.8% YTD 
• S&P Mid Cap 400 +0.6% for the week/ +0.1% YTD

Monday:

A healthy dose of "buy the dip" optimism propelled the stock market to sound opening gains, while a lack of developments on the trade front or elsewhere helped the major averages carry the bulk of these gains through to the close.

Broad-based buying interest saw ten S&P 500 sectors close in positive territory, with the communication services (+2.6%), utilities (+1.7%), information technology (+2.2%), materials (+1.4%), and health care (+1.3%) sectors all finishing with gains above 1.0%.

Gains in the communication services and information technology sectors were underpinned by strong leadership in their mega-cap components. NVIDIA (NVDA 180.00, +6.28, +3.6%), Alphabet (GOOG 195.75, +5.80, +3.1%), Meta Platforms (META 776.37, +26.36, +3.5%), and Microsoft (MSFT 535.64, +11.53, +2.2%) all did their part in leading a rebound from Friday's retreat.

Tesla (TSLA 309.26, +6.63, +2.2%) also captured a nice gain following reports of a lucrative new compensation package for CEO Elon Musk, though a weaker showing from Amazon (AMZN 211.65, -3.10, -1.4%) limited the growth of the consumer discretionary sector.

While mega-cap stocks provided much of the early buzz, stocks of all sizes advanced today, and small-cap stocks actually outperformed the broader market. The Russell 2000 posted a gain of 2.0%, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 added 1.2%.

Breadth figures were decidedly positive, with advancers outpacing decliners by a greater than 5-to-1 ratio on the NYSE and a greater than 3-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq.

The only notable point of weakness came in the energy sector (-0.4%), which faced pressure amid a 1.6% decrease in oil prices to $66.28 per barrel after OPEC+ agreed to increase its output by 547,000 bpd in September.

For the most part, stocks rebounded nicely from Friday's lows, and while a lack of headlines helped preserve the early gains, the market will have trade developments to navigate ahead of the new August 7 deadline for several key partners.

The market also anticipates a heavy week of earnings reports, with this morning's reports just a fraction of the companies set to report. Commscope (COMM 14.49, +6.70, +86.0%), which also sold its Connectivity and Cable Solutions to Amphenol (APH 108.63, +4.32, +4.1%) for $10.5 billion in cash, Energizer (ENR 28.06, +5.92, +26.7%), and Wayfair (W 73.54, +8.32, +12.8%) all scored big gains following their earnings reports.

Another session like today could see the S&P 500 (+1.5%) and Nasdaq Composite (+2.0%) challenge record high levels from last week, but the market will have more developments to navigate this week to establish today's advance as a continuing trend.

U.S. Treasuries began the week on a modestly higher note, padding their big, post-NFP gains from Friday. The 2-yr note yield slipped two basis points to 3.68%, while the 10-year note yield settled down two basis points to 4.20%

Reviewing today's data:

• Factory orders slumped 4.8% month-over-month in June (Briefing.com consensus: -5.1%) following an upwardly revised 8.3% increase (from 8.2%) in May. Excluding transportation, factory orders increased 0.4% month-over-month following a 0.3% increase in May. Shipments of manufactured goods jumped 0.5% on the heels of a 0.2% increase in May.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness in factory orders in June was largely concentrated in transportation equipment orders, so the headline isn't as bad as it appears at first blush; however, some extra attention will be paid next month to new orders for nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft—a proxy for business spending—to see if the weakness in June (-0.8%), which followed a 1.9% increase in May, persists.

Tuesday:

The stock market saw its modest opening gains quickly reversed in the wake of a halting July ISM Services PMI, with the major averages drifting below their opening levels and closing with modest losses.

While yesterday's advance was impressive in its magnitude, there was little in the way of tangible developments to substantiate the gains, a notion that was swiftly reiterated by the market's reaction to today's softer economic data.

The July Services PMI registered at 50.1%, just barely above the 50.0% benchmark for contraction. A faster rate of contraction in the employment index and a faster increase in the prices index combined to prompt stagflation concerns, which become especially relevant when last week's underwhelming payrolls report is taken into consideration.

As a result, losses were relatively broad-based today, with seven S&P 500 sectors finishing in negative territory.

The utilities (-1.1%), communication services (-0.9%), and information technology (-0.9%) sectors faced the widest losses among S&P 500 sectors today, though today's retreats were modest in comparison to yesterday's advance. Only the energy sector (+0.2%), which closed higher today, holds a week-to-date loss (-0.3%).

The materials (+0.8%), consumer discretionary (+0.3%), and real estate (+0.3%) sectors were the other three sectors that closed with a gain.

Small-cap stocks also furthered their advance today, with the Russell 2000 closing with a gain of 0.6%. The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.3%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.5%), while the Vanguard Megacap Growth ETF finished with a loss of 0.8% after yesterday's 2.0% gain.

Today's economic data notwithstanding, there was a lack of major developments to sway the market from a sideways drift after the early losses.

Trade headlines were notably slim, though President Trump stated in a CNBC interview before the open that he will soon announce a separate tariff plan for semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index was down 1.1%, with losses in the broader technology sector masking an impressive earnings report from Palantir Technologies (PLTR 173.27, +12.61, +7.9%).

Tariff concerns were reflected in today's June Trade Balance report, as a notable decrease in imports hints at impeded global trade activity.

In the same CNBC interview, President Trump indicated that he may be announcing a replacement for Fed Governor Kugler soon and that there is a possibility whoever fills her seat could eventually be nominated for Fed Chair. The president also indicated that Treasury Secretary Bessent does not want the Fed Chair job and that he has taken Mr. Bessent's name "off the list," which currently includes four people being considered by the president, including former Fed Governor Warsh and NEC Director Hassett.

U.S. Treasuries had a mixed outing in a curve-flattening trade that was dictated by the underperformance of the front end of the curve versus the back end. Today's trade featured a relatively disappointing 3-year note auction that saw weak interest on the part of indirect bidders.

The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.72%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.20%.

Reviewing today's data:

• June Trade Balance -$60.2 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$62.0 bln); Prior was revised to -$71.7 bln from -$71.5 bln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects the fact that tariff actions by the U.S. and the uncertainty related to the tariffs have impeded global trade activity.
• July S&P Global U.S. Service PMI - Final 55.7; Prior 52.9
• July ISM Services 50.1% (Briefing.com consensus 51.5%); Prior 50.8%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it reflects a slowdown in growth for the country's largest sector, accompanied by a faster contraction in employment and a faster increase in prices. It is a combination that will provoke stagflation chatter.

Wednesday: 

The stock market opened with strength in its larger components following yesterday's retreat, with a lack of macro developments allowing the early momentum to persist, culminating in healthy gains across the major averages.

Shortly after the open, shares of Apple (AAPL 213.28, +10.36, +5.10%) traded higher following headlines that the company will announce a $100 billion investment increase in domestic manufacturing at the White House this afternoon, bringing the company's total investment to $600 billion.

While the White House announced that India (which is the largest manufacturer of Apple's iPhone) will face an additional 25% tariff (50% total tariff rate) due to its ongoing purchase of Russian oil, White House officials said that Apple will not be materially affected by the tariff, according to CNBC.

Trade developments were notably slim for the remainder of the session. Bloomberg reported that Swiss President Karin Keller-Sutter will leave Washington today without reaching a deal to lower the looming 39% tariff rate. Separately, President Trump stated via Truth Social that his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, had a "highly productive" meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin, though no further details have been reported, and neither one of these headlines moved the market.

Mega-cap momentum, however, would continue to push the major averages higher throughout the session.

The consumer discretionary sector (+2.4%) finished as the top-performing S&P 500 sector due to noteworthy gains in its mega-cap constituents, Amazon (AMZN 222.30, +8.56, +4.00%) and Tesla (TSLA 319.91, +11.19, +3.62%).

A strong performance from Walmart (WMT 103.36, +4.06, +4.08%) buoyed the consumer staples sector (+1.7%), and Apple's gains helped the information technology sector (+1.3%) round out the top three gainers today.

In total, six S&P 500 sectors finished in positive territory today. The market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.7%) outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-0.2%), showing that while there was indeed a healthy dose of buying interest, larger stocks contributed more to today's advance.

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished the day with a 1.5% gain.

Today's batch of earnings reports garnered mixed reactions, with several blue-chip stocks in the fold.

McDonald's (MCD 307.58, +8.81, +2.95%) reported its best earnings since 4Q23, adding to strength in the consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%).

Meanwhile, Walt Disney (DIS 115.17, -3.15, -2.66%) traded lower despite topping earnings expectations, limiting gains within the communication services sector (+0.7%).

Amgen (AMGN 284.67, -15.41, -5.14%), which also topped earnings expectations, weighed on the health care sector (-1.5%) as investors have taken stock of some weak sales in some of its key drugs.

Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 163.12, -11.19, -6.42%) and Cirrus Logic (CRUS 97.25, -7.72, -7.35%) moved lower following earnings, contributing to weakness among stocks that saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index close with a loss of 0.2%.

The energy sector (-0.9%) faced pressure today as crude oil recorded its lowest close since early June, with prices falling 1.2% to $64.34 per barrel.

The utilities (-0.9%), real estate (-0.8%), and materials (-0.8%) sectors also finished the day in negative territory, though the losses did little to sway a steady climb in the major averages that saw the S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.2%) finish near their session highs.

While today's advance was not as broad-based as Monday's rally, it marked a similar "buy the dip" disposition, though a lack of macro developments leaves room to question if the trend will continue to record-high levels from last week.

U.S. Treasuries had a mixed showing on Wednesday, as longer tenors retreated after outperforming on Tuesday while the short end climbed after lagging yesterday. Treasuries faced some intraday pressure that persisted through the completion of a weak $42 billion 10-year note offering, but the last 90 minutes of trade saw a push to fresh highs in the 5-year note and shorter tenors, while longer tenors finished near their starting levels.

The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.70% and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.22%

Reviewing today's data:

• The weekly MBA Mortgage Index was up 3.1% after falling 3.8% a week ago. The Refinance Index rose 5.2% while the Purchase Index was up 1.5%

Thursday:

The stock market opened to early gains as investors were enthused by the announcement of semiconductor tariff carveouts, but these gains were quickly ceded as the market succumbed to relatively broad-based selling activity that saw the major averages close mostly lower.

The information technology sector (+0.4%) surged out of the gate following yesterday afternoon's announcement from President Trump that companies committed to domestic production will be exempt from an impending 100% tariff rate on chips and semiconductors.

NVIDIA (NVDA 180.77, +1.35, +0.75%) hit a fresh record high of 183.88, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index was up as much as 2.7%. Ten S&P 500 sectors traded in positive territory during the morning rush, pushing the S&P 500 (-0.1%) within 0.6 points of its all-time closing high (6,389.77).

After testing record levels, stocks quickly began to retreat. At first, the sell-off was broad-based, with nine sectors trading in negative territory, though the technology sector still held a bulk of its early gains, which kept the major averages in positive territory.

The major averages hit session lows below their flatlines around 2:30 PM ET, as the technology sector flipped into negative territory. A modest late-session advance helped the sector finish with a gain of 0.3%, largely due to continued strength in Apple (AAPL 220.03, +6.78, +3.18%) following yesterday's $100 billion investment increase in domestic production and relative strength among chipmakers that saw the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish with a gain of 1.5%, just over half of its early advance.

The Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%) eked out a closing gain, while the S&P 500 (-0.1%) could not quite resurface above its flatline, and the DJIA (-0.5) posted a wider loss.

A lack of major developments makes it difficult to pin today's retreat on any one factor, but it is worth noting that increased tariff rates for several key partners went into effect last night, pushing the effective tariff rate near historical levels. While the market has been quick to focus on optimistic developments on the trade front, there is still uncertainty around how the economy will respond to a higher tariff environment.

A weaker-than-expected initial jobless claims report also points to a softening labor market.

Though the market closed well below its early highs, losses were relatively modest. Only the health care (-1.2%) and financials (-1.1%) sectors closed with losses greater than 0.5%.

The health care sector faced pressure out of the gate as its largest component, Eli Lilly (LLY 640.61, -105.76, -14.17%), traded sharply lower in response to results from its weight-loss drug pill trial. Those results, on the surface, were positive, yet they reportedly didn't measure up to the competition, showing a 12.4% weight loss versus 15% for Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 48.76, +3.38, +7.45%) weight-loss drug pill and an overall dropout rate of 24.4% at the highest dose.

Excluding the loss in the health care sector, defensive sectors outperformed today, as the utilities (+1.1%) and consumer staples (+0.7%) sectors closed with the largest gains.

Crude oil fell to its lowest closing level since early June, settling $0.49 (-0.8%) lower at $63.85 per barrel.

There were some notable developments in regard to President Trump's anticipated Federal Reserve Board nominations.

Bloomberg reported that Fed Governor Chris Waller is emerging as the top choice for Fed Chair among Trump's team of advisors, though a White House official stated that until the president speaks on the matter himself, this is speculative.

Just before the close, President Trump announced via Truth Social that he selected Dr. Stephen Miran to serve in Adriana Kugler's just-vacated seat on the Federal Reserve Board until January 31, 2026. In the meantime, the president will search for a more permanent replacement.

U.S. Treasuries modestly retreated on Thursday as the market digested the July Survey of Consumer Expectations from the New York Fed and a disappointing $25 billion 30-year bond sale that once again saw below-average foreign demand. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.73%, the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.24%, and the 30-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.82%.

Reviewing today's data:

• Q2 Productivity - Prel 2.4% (Briefing.com consensus 2.2%); Prior was revised to -1.8% from -1.5%, Q2 Unit Labor Costs - Prel 1.6% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%); Prior was revised to 6.9% from 6.6%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that productivity improved noticeably from the first quarter, helping to tamp down unit labor costs. The 1.8% annualized rate of productivity growth in the current business cycle (starting Q4 2019), though, is still below the long-term rate of 2.1% since the first quarter of 1947.
• Weekly Initial Claims 226K (Briefing.com consensus 220K); Prior was revised to 219K from 218K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.974 mln; Prior was revised to 1.936 mln from 1.946 mln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report, in light of the soft nonfarm payrolls data seen last week, is the jump in continuing jobless claims, which will be seen as a sign/symptom of a softening labor market.
• June Wholesale Inventories 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior -0.3%
• Consumer credit increased by $7.4 billion in June (Briefing.com consensus: $8.6 billion) following an unrevised $5.1 billion increase in May.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the entirety of the consumer credit expansion in June was driven by nonrevolving credit.

Friday: 

The stock market steadily built on its opening strength, with gains in the mega-cap stocks propelling the major averages higher throughout the session. The S&P 500 finished just shy of a new all-time closing high, while the Nasdaq Composite hit a new record high.

The S&P 500 (+0.8%) finished 0.22 points beneath its all-time closing high of 6,389.77, though it traded slightly above that mark for much of the afternoon. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) saw the biggest gain today, and the DJIA (+0.5%) also finished with a decent gain.

There was no real macro catalyst for today's advance. There wasn’t any economic data that was released, and while the market received a hefty batch of earnings reports, they were mostly from small- to medium-sized companies.

Nevertheless, the stock market performed well, being left to its own devices. This week's persistent "buy the dip" mentality contributed to eight S&P 500 sectors finishing with gains, with only the real estate (-0.8%), utilities (-0.5%), and industrials (flat) sectors sitting out today's advance.

Meanwhile, the communication services (+1.2%), information technology (+1.2%), financials (+0.9%), and health care (+0.9%) sectors captured nice gains.

Mega-cap names had a strong session, with Apple (AAPL 229.35, +9.32, +4.24%), Alphabet (GOOG 202.09, +4.81, +2.44%), and Tesla (TSLA 329.68, +7.40, +2.30%) underpinning a 0.9% gain in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF. Remarkably, Apple was up 13.3% for the week.

Smaller stocks largely missed out on today's action. The market-weighted S&P 500 (+0.8%) outperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (flat). Additionally, the Russell 2000 advanced 0.1%, while the S&P MidCap 400 finished with a loss of 0.1%.

Just before the close, The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump's team of advisers is adding James Bullard and Marc Summerlin to the list of possible Fed Chair nominations, which also includes Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh. James Bullard is the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, and Marc Summerlin was an economic adviser for the Bush administration.

The market heard from current St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem, who suggested that inflation could remain elevated due to tariffs and indicated that keeping the current policy rate appears appropriate. Musalem, a voting member of the FOMC this year, also noted that he remains open-minded.

On the trade front, gold futures settled $37.60 higher (+1.1%) at $3,491.30/oz, up about +2.7% on the week; the move was driven by growing uncertainty after reports surfaced that U.S. Customs may begin imposing a 39% tariff on standard 1-kg and 100-oz gold bars. However, Bloomberg reported this afternoon that the White House will issue an executive order clarifying that such gold bars will not be subject to tariffs.

Elsewhere in geopolitical news, Bloomberg reported that the U.S. and Russia are negotiating terms for an agreement that would cede to Russia some of the territory that it has occupied during its military occupation in Ukraine.

This was followed up by a CNBC report that a summit between President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin is now tentatively scheduled for later next week, though a location for the summit has not yet been disclosed. It is still unclear what role Ukrainian President Zelenskyy will play in the negotiations.

Crude oil futures briefly moved below their opening levels in response but settled 0.1% higher at $63.88 per barrel.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Friday, deepening their pullback from three-month highs that were reached in the wake of last week's disappointing jobs report for July. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points at 3.76% (+6 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points at 4.29% (+7 basis points this week).