Weekly Wrap

Stocks endured a difficult week as a sharp surge in oil prices and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran weighed heavily on investor sentiment. The S&P 500 declined 2.0% for the week, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.2% and the DJIA dropped 3.0%. Losses were even steeper across smaller companies, with the Russell 2000 falling 4.1% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 losing 4.6%, underscoring a clear risk-off tone across the market.

Geopolitical developments were the dominant driver of market action throughout the week. Conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran intensified following weekend strikes targeting senior Iranian leadership, triggering retaliatory attacks across the region and raising concerns about the security of global oil supply routes. Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz slowed dramatically, and headlines throughout the week repeatedly moved markets as investors attempted to gauge the potential economic consequences. Crude oil prices ultimately surged $23.80 per barrel, or 35.5%, to $90.86, fueling fears that higher energy costs could ripple through transportation, input prices, and ultimately inflation.

The spike in oil prices created a difficult backdrop for equities. While the energy sector managed to finish the week higher (+1.0%), most other sectors struggled as investors assessed the implications for corporate margins and monetary policy. Materials (-7.2%), health care (-4.6%), industrials (-4.1%), and consumer staples (-4.9%) were among the hardest hit groups, while utilities (-2.1%) and real estate (-2.3%) also retreated. Financials (-1.8%) and consumer discretionary (-1.4%) posted more moderate declines but still faced pressure amid the broader risk-off environment.

Technology-related areas held up comparatively well, helping to limit losses in the major indices. The information technology sector slipped just 0.4% for the week, while the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF also declined only 0.4%. Strength across software names was a notable theme, with the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF jumping 7.9% amid continued buying interest in select enterprise software companies. Semiconductor stocks, however, faced significant pressure, with the PHLX Semiconductor ETF falling 7.2% as investors reduced exposure to cyclical growth areas during the week’s volatility.

Economic data releases added another layer of complexity to the market narrative. Survey-based indicators early in the week showed continued expansion in both manufacturing and services activity, while the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book pointed to expectations for slight to moderate economic growth across most districts. However, Friday’s February employment report painted a more complicated picture. Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 (Briefing.com consensus 60,000), while the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4% from 4.3%. At the same time, average hourly earnings rose 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), highlighting persistent wage pressures. The combination of weakening job growth and firm wage inflation created a murky outlook for monetary policy, particularly against the backdrop of sharply rising energy prices.

Market volatility surged as the week progressed, reflecting the heightened uncertainty surrounding geopolitical developments and their potential economic fallout. The CBOE Volatility Index climbed 48.5% to 29.49, signaling a rapid increase in demand for downside protection. Meanwhile, sectors sensitive to higher fuel costs, including airlines, trucking, and cruise operators, experienced notable weakness as investors priced in the potential impact of sustained energy inflation.

Ultimately, the week illustrated how quickly geopolitical shocks can ripple through financial markets. The surge in oil prices and uncertainty surrounding the Iran conflict overshadowed otherwise solid economic readings earlier in the week, prompting broad selling pressure and a decisive shift toward defensive positioning. With inflation data due in the coming week and the energy shock unlikely to be reflected in those figures yet, investors will remain focused on geopolitical developments and oil prices as key drivers of market sentiment in the near term.

• Nasdaq Composite: -1.2% week-to-date
• S&P 500: -2.0% week-to-date
• DJIA: -3.0% week-to-date
• Russell 2000: -4.1% week-to-date
• S&P Mid Cap 400: -4.6% week-to-date

Monday:

Stocks had an eventful start to March, with the subdued finishes of the S&P 500 (flat), Nasdaq Composite (+0.4%), and DJIA (-0.2%) betraying the intraday volatility. 

The market opened to considerable losses after a busy weekend of geopolitical headlines that included joint strikes by the U.S. and Israel taking out much of Iran's senior government and military leadership. Iran launched its own strikes on bases across several countries in the region in response, sending oil prices surging and disrupting international travel. 

The energy sector (+2.0%) was the only S&P 500 sector to trade higher for some of the morning and finished as today's top mover. Crude oil futures settled today's session $4.17 higher (+6.2%) at $71.23 per barrel, though they spiked higher after the session's close following a Reuters report that Iran will attack any ship that attempts to traverse the Strait of Hormuz. 

The late-session headline saw stocks retreat from their best levels, which briefly pushed the major averages modestly higher across the board. 

The industrials sector (+1.0%) was another standout today, with its gains largely attributed to the conflict in Iran. Aerospace and defense names such as Axon (AXON 572.02, +29.62, +5.46%), Northrop Grumman (NOC 768.02, +43.64, +6.02%), and RTX (RTX 212.16, +9.54, +4.71%) were among the top performers, helping the iShares DJ Aerospace ETF finish 2.8% higher.

The gains offset weakness across airline names such as United Airlines (UAL 103.21, -3.09, -2.91%) and Delta Air Lines (DAL 64.25, -1.45, -2.21%). 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.9%) played a pivotal role in helping the major averages overcome their early losses. The sector opened to modest losses but quickly began to chart a higher course throughout the session until the Strait of Hormuz headlines saw it give back a chunk of its best levels. 

With the U.S. directly involved in conflict in Iran, it is not surprising that Palantir Technologies (PLTR 145.13, +7.94, +5.79%) was a standout today. However, it is worth noting that the broader software space saw solid gains across a number of components today, sending the iShares GS Software ETF 1.5% higher. 

Microsoft (MSFT 398.55, +5.81, +1.48%) posted a nice gain, though NVIDIA (NVDA 182.48, +5.29, +2.99%) was the true "Magnificent Seven" standout after a weekend report from The Wall Street Journal said the company plans to unveil a new chip designed to speed up AI processing, helping the stock recover a chunk of its post-earnings skid.

The real estate sector (+0.3%) also captured a gain, while the seven other S&P 500 sectors finished lower. 

The consumer discretionary sector (-1.1%) was a laggard as a majority of its components traded lower today. Losses were particularly acute across travel names amid the rising fuel costs and geopolitical headlines. Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 22.19, -2.60, -10.49%) was among the worst-performing S&P 500 names today after missing revenue expectations and issuing cautious guidance. 

Meanwhile, the defensive consumer staples (-1.4%), health care (-1.0%), and utilities (-0.8%) sectors also lagged amid the rebound across tech names today. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.8%) outperformed after shrugging off modest early losses of their own. 

Ultimately, today's session underscored the market's resilience to the conflict in Iran, with stocks largely improving throughout the course of the session. President Trump told reporters that the U.S. is ahead of schedule on operations that were initially predicted to last around four to five weeks. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon added commentary of his own in a CNBC interview, stating that if the Iran conflict is not prolonged, there's not going to be a major inflationary impact.

The inflationary effects of higher oil prices could prove to be consequential, particularly as incoming data continue to show firm price pressures beneath the surface. The ISM Manufacturing Index slowed modestly in February but remained in expansion territory, and more notably, the Prices Index accelerated at a faster pace. That pickup is likely to fuel concerns about sticky inflation and reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain its current policy rate for longer than previously anticipated. In turn, rate-cut expectations have been pushed further out, with the market no longer assigning at least 50% odds to the next cut until the July FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

U.S. Treasuries began March with a sharp retreat that lifted yields off their lowest levels of the year. The 2-year note yield settled up 11 basis points to 3.49%, and the 10-year note yield settled up nine basis points to 4.05%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• February S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 51.6; Prior 51.2
• February ISM Manufacturing Index 52.4% (Briefing.com consensus 52.1%); Prior 52.6%
  • The key takeaway from the report is the faster pace of growth in the Prices Index, as that will fuel concerns about sticky inflation pressure (and the Fed sticking with its current policy rate for longer).

Tuesday:

The S&P 500 (-0.9%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.0%), and DJIA (-0.8%) finished lower across the board today as investors reacted to another day of higher energy prices amid the conflict in Iran. 

The major indices each traded with losses around 2.5% in the late morning hours, with broad losses and a clear risk-off disposition underscoring the market's fears that a prolonged rise in energy prices could impact inflation readings and affect the Fed's expected monetary policy path. 

Early breadth figures were abysmal, with a nearly 8% surge in oil prices putting broad pressure on the market. 

The early retreat was in some respects a technical move, as the market was well aware of those concerns yesterday but brushed them off to log a mixed finish. 

While the conflict in Iran does not have a clear end in sight as strikes continue, the market found some buying support in the midday hours that helped the major averages finish well above their session lows. 

Following earlier reports that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had slowed to a standstill, Donald Trump said in the afternoon via Truth Social that the U.S. Development Finance Corporation has been directed to provide insurance to carriers operating in the Persian Gulf after private insurers pulled coverage due to the conflict with Iran. He also indicated that the U.S. Navy could begin escorting tankers through the strait if necessary.

Ultimately, oil gave back a chunk of its early gains, with crude oil futures settling today's session $3.35 higher (+4.7%) at $74.58 per barrel. 

All eleven S&P 500 sectors charted lower finishes, though nearly all of them improved considerably from their worst levels. 

The financials sector (-0.2%) came the closest to notching a gain today, with improvements across major banking names helping the sector shed an early loss of nearly 2%. Software-related names such as Jack Henry (JKHY 168.75, +4.55, +2.77%) and PayPal (PYPL 46.38, +0.75, +1.64%) were among the outperformers as the software space mounted another solid rebound effort today. 

The iShares GS Software ETF finished 1.6% higher, helping ease losses in the information technology sector (-1.1%). Workday (WDAY 143.61, +9.60, +7.16%) was the top-performing S&P 500 name today, while Microsoft (MSFT 403.93, +5.38, +1.35%) was a mega-cap standout. 

The sector remained firmly lower throughout the session following a disappointing performance from chipmakers, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index finishing 4.6% lower. 

Elsewhere, the communication services sector (-0.3%) was another relative outperformer today, supported by strength across cellular service names after AT&T (T 28.68, +0.67, +2.39%) reaffirmed its guidance. 

Meanwhile, the materials sector (-2.7%) closed with the widest loss amid a sharp pullback in precious metal prices. 

Target (TGT 120.80, +7.63, +6.74%) and Best Buy (BBY 65.95, +4.36, +7.08%) posted solid gains following their earnings reports, though corporate news flow was largely overshadowed by geopolitical developments and broader market swings today. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.4%) underperformed today, facing pressure amid diminishing expectations for Fed easing this year. 

While the major averages finished lower, the sharp rebound from late-morning lows suggests that investors are not yet prepared to extrapolate the energy shock into a sustained downturn. For now, price action continues to hinge on developments in oil and the trajectory of the conflict.

U.S. Treasuries ended Tuesday with slight losses in most tenors after a steady rise off their morning lows. The trading day started with an extension of Monday's losses, which lifted yields to their highest levels in nearly three weeks alongside overnight weakness in global equities and other sovereign debt. However, the entire complex climbed off morning lows alongside a weak open on Wall Street. The 2-year note yield settled up one basis point to 3.50%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.06%. 

There was no economic data of note today.

Wednesday:

Stocks posted a strong performance today, with the S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.3%), and DJIA (+0.5%) finishing higher across the board for the first time this week. After pronounced volatility in previous sessions, the market trended higher with relative ease today as mega-cap and tech stocks provided strong leadership against a backdrop of broad strength. 

Futures pointed higher this morning as oil prices showed some relief from two consecutive sessions of sharp increases. While the conflict in Iran continues into its fifth day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that the Trump administration will be making a series of announcements to mitigate the rise in oil prices. Crude oil futures still settled $0.12 higher (+0.2%) at $74.70 per barrel, though the advance was minimal compared to the outsized gains seen earlier this week.

The market also received several solid economic data readings today, which were particularly welcome, as the recent spike in oil prices has prompted some inflation concerns. The February ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (56.1%; Briefing.com consensus 53.9%) showed solid growth, while the Fed's release of its March Beige Book showed that economic expectations were optimistic, with most districts expecting slight to moderate growth in the coming months.

Strength was broad today, led by the consumer discretionary sector (+2.2%), which moved back into positive territory for the year. 

Amazon (AMZN 216.82, +8.09, +3.88%) and Tesla (TSLA 406.04, +13.61, +3.47%) provided exceptional leadership amid a strong day for the market's weightiest components, which saw the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finish 1.1% higher. 

Ross Stores (ROST 213.52, +15.88, +8.03%) finished even higher as investors reacted positively to an impressive beat-and-raise earnings report. 

In line with today's rotation back into growth-oriented sectors, the information technology sector (+1.3%) was the other notable standout in today's trade. 

Semiconductor names rebounded from yesterday's sharp retreat, with particular strength across memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 599.06, +33.65, +5.95%) and Micron (MU 400.77, +21.09, +5.55%). Broadcom (AVGO 317.53, +3.69, +1.18%) also captured a nice gain ahead of its earnings release this evening, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 1.9% higher. 

Meanwhile, this week's rebound across software names extended into today's session, sending the iShares GS Software ETF 1.8% higher. 

Gains were limited to 0.6% or less across the remaining six S&P 500 sectors that finished higher, with most sectors trading in a relatively stable range throughout the day. 

The energy sector (-0.7%) lagged as oil prices plateaued today, while the consumer staples (-0.5%) and materials (-0.1%) sectors also finished modestly lower. 

It is worth noting that today's rebound in equities happened alongside a nearly 7% rally in Bitcoin, with the cryptocurrency currently trading above the $73,000 mark. Coinbase Global (COIN 208.93, +26.57, +14.57%) was one of the best-performing S&P 500 names today.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+1.1%) performed in line with the major averages, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) eked out a slight gain. 

Ultimately, today's session saw the market breathe a sigh of relief after heightened volatility to start the week. A stalling of oil's sharp increase combined with a handful of solid economic data readings provided a supportive backdrop for investors to step in to recent weakness, with solid leadership from mega-cap names giving the market a lift at the index level. 

U.S. Treasuries endured an extension of this week's losses with some intraday divergence as the long bond recovered some of its starting loss while shorter tenors underperformed after upbeat economic data. The 2-year note yield settled up four basis points to 3.54%, and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.08%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index 11.0%; Prior 0.4%
• February ADP Employment Change 63K (Briefing.com consensus 42K); Prior was revised to 11K from 22K
• February S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Final 51.7; Prior 52.3
• February ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 56.1% (Briefing.com consensus 53.9%); Prior 53.8%
  • The key takeaway from the report is the recognition that activity in the nation's largest sector accelerated in February. While this is survey-based data, it will nonetheless create a sense of optimism about Q1 growth prospects.

Thursday:

Stocks finished mostly lower today as a sharp increase in oil prices put pressure on the broader market after showing signs of stabilization yesterday. The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (-1.6%) ticked lower for the majority of the session as investors weighed concerns about how the higher fuel prices might weigh on margins or inflation readings, though they finished well off of their worst levels of the session.

Crude oil settled today's session $6.27 higher (+8.4%) at $80.97 per barrel, its highest closing level since July 2024. Reports circulated that Iran claimed to have struck a U.S. oil tanker in the Persian Gulf, though that has yet to be confirmed. What is certain, however, is that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains at a near standstill. 

Oil prices have come down from their highest levels after the futures settlement in reaction to several headlines. Bloomberg reported that the Trump administration is "considering everything" to bring down oil prices, which follows the president's call on Tuesday for the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation to insure tankers traveling through the region while touting the possibility of a U.S. Navy escort. 

Additionally, Reuters reported that China is engaged in discussions with Iran to allow the safe passage of oil and natural gas tankers through the strait. 

The developments helped the major averages finish considerably above their session lows, with the Nasdaq Composite finishing the session in positive week-to-date territory. 

Weakness was still relatively broad, with only three S&P 500 sectors charting a higher finish. 

The energy sector (+0.6%) unsurprisingly finished as the top performer, though it too spent a considerable amount of time below its flatline today. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (+0.4%) also notched a gain supported by another strong rally in software names such as Intuit (INTU 466.79, +26.65, +6.05%) and ServiceNow (NOW 120.39, +6.53, +5.74%), sending the iShares GS Software ETF 2.3% higher. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 1.2% lower, though Broadcom (AVGO 332.74, +15.21, +4.79%) was a standout after a solid earnings report. 

The consumer discretionary sector (+0.3%) rounds out the three sectors to finish higher. Amazon (AMZN 218.94, +2.12, +0.98%) was one of the better-performing mega-cap names today, while Expedia Group (EXPE 251.54, +29.81, +13.44%) and Booking Holdings (BKNG 4613.28, +359.70, +8.46%) finished sharply higher after The Information reported that OpenAI is dialing back plans to integrate direct travel booking functionality into ChatGPT.

As for today's laggards, losses were broad and steepest among some of this year's best-performing sectors. 

Defensive sectors were among the underperformers, with the consumer staples (-2.4%) and health care (-2.0%) sectors both finishing near the bottom of the leaderboard. Walmart (WMT 123.32, -4.49, -3.51%) faced pressure after being downgraded to Hold from Buy at Erste Group, while Costco (COST 982.57, -24.17, -2.40%) also lagged ahead of its earnings release.

The materials sector (-2.3%) finished similarly despite a nice rebound in its chemical names as metal prices pulled back today. 

The industrials sector (-2.2%) rounds out the four S&P 500 sectors to finish with a loss of 2.0% or wider, with airline names and UPS (UPS 104.05, -6.45, -5.84%) among the laggards amid higher fuel prices. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-1.9%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.4%) underperformed in comparison to the major averages. 

Ultimately, today was a step back for equities after yesterday's brief stabilization of oil prices fueled the narrative that the market would be able to maintain resilience despite the conflict in Iran. While stocks finished well off of their session lows, the late upward momentum was contingent on headlines that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will be addressed meaningfully before affecting global oil supply. Until that comes to fruition, the surge in oil prices poses a major overhang to the market, and with each additional day that crude prices push higher, the risk grows that the move begins to feed through to transportation costs, input prices, and ultimately inflation readings.

U.S. Treasuries retreated for the fourth consecutive day, and once again, the long bond fared better than shorter tenors, but it also finished in the red. The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.60%, the 10-year note yield settled up seven basis points to 4.15%, and the 30-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.75%.

Reviewing today's data:

• Q4 Productivity-Prel 2.8% (Briefing.com consensus 4.0%); Prior was revised to 5.2% from 4.9%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs- Prel 2.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior was revised to -1.8% from -1.9%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the productivity increase itself was pretty solid, yet that consideration was offset by the comparable jump in unit labor costs that aren't going to help ease concerns about sticky inflation pressures.
• Weekly Initial Claims 213K (Briefing.com consensus 216K); Prior was revised to 213K from 212K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.868 mln; Prior was revised to 1.822 mln from 1.833 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report will be the continuing low level of initial jobless claims, which connotes a labor market that is slow to fire employees.
• January Import Prices 0.2%; Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.1%
• January Import Prices ex-oil 0.5%; Prior was revised to 0.2% from 0.4%
• January Export Prices 0.6%; Prior was revised to 0.6% from 0.3%
• January Export Prices ex-ag. 0.7%; Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.3%

Friday:

Stocks finished lower again today as the unrelenting surge in oil prices continued to weigh broadly on the market. The S&P 500 (-1.3%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.6%), and DJIA (-1.0%) finished near their session lows, with today's weakness resulting in losses across the board for the major averages. 

Headlines were once again dominated by the surge in oil prices, with crude oil futures settling today's session $9.89 higher (+12.2%) at $90.86 per barrel. Financial Times reported that Qatar's energy minister, Saad al-Kaabi, warned that all Gulf oil producers could be forced to halt production in the coming days as the conflict endangers operations.

Additionally, President Trump said via Truth Social that a deal to end the war in Iran cannot be achieved without an unconditional surrender, though he somewhat softened his tone in an interview with Axios by saying "unconditional surrender" could mean the complete destruction of the regime's military instead of a formal surrender. 

Altogether, oil climbed $23.80 per barrel, or 35.5%, this week, which has prompted inflation concerns that have further diminished the market's expectation for a rate cut. However, a disappointing employment situation report for February (-92,000; Briefing.com consensus 60,000) gave rate cut expectations a modest boost and further complicated the expected monetary policy path. 

As for today's action, breadth figures were once again dismal, with just two S&P 500 sectors charting a modest gain. 

The energy sector (+0.1%) eked out a gain amid the higher price of oil while the consumer staples sector (+0.3%) finished as the top performer. Costco (COST 998.10, +15.53, +1.58%) notched a nice gain following its earnings report, while Kroger (KR 74.16, +2.58, +3.61%) continued its own post-earnings run. 

Defensive sectors were relative outperformers today, as the utilities (-0.4%) and health care (-0.8%) sectors finished with the narrowest losses today. 

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector (-2.0%) lagged today, with particular weakness across cruise lines such as Carnival (CCL 25.80, -1.36, -4.99%) and Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 20.06, -0.86, -4.13%).

Airlines and trucking names were also underperformers as oil prices climbed, with Old Dominion (ODFL 193.97, -16.71, -7.93%) being one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names today. However, the industrials sector (-1.3%) saw its losses somewhat softened by strength in aerospace and defense names as the iShares DJ Aerospace ETF finished 0.8% higher. 

The information technology sector (-1.8%) finished near its session lows as selling pressure ramped across semiconductor names this afternoon, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index 3.9% lower. Software names once again displayed relative strength, although Oracle (ORCL 152.93, -1.86, -1.20%) sold off sharply late in the session after Bloomberg reported that the company is ending plans to expand a flagship data center in Texas with OpenAI. 

In other corporate news, Financial Times reported that BlackRock (BLK 955.45, -79.55, -7.69%) has limited withdrawals from its HPS Corporate Lending Fund, a headline that weighed on asset manager names in the financials sector (-1.4%). 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-2.4%) underperformed as the market displayed a clear risk-off disposition today. 

Ultimately, today's session marked a lower finish to a particularly tough week for stocks. Rising oil prices continue to weigh on the market with no clear end in sight for the conflict in Iran, prompting concerns about margins and inflationary pressures. Inflation readings will take center stage next week with a busy week of economic data, though it will not yet reflect this week's energy surge. The major averages will enter the consequential week firmly lower across the board for the year.

U.S. Treasuries followed four days of selling with a volatile Friday session that produced a modest bounce in shorter tenors, while the long bond underperformed after showing some relative strength earlier this week. The 2-year note yield settled down four basis points to 3.56% (+18 basis points this week), the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.13% (+13 basis points this week), and the 30-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.76% (+14 basis points this week). 

Reviewing today's data:

• February Nonfarm Payrolls -92K (Briefing.com consensus 60K); Prior was revised to 126K from 130K, February Nonfarm Private Payrolls -86K (Briefing.com consensus 78K); Prior was revised to 146K from 172K, February Unemployment Rate 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus 4.3%); Prior 4.3%, February Average Hourly Earnings 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.4%, February Average Workweek 34.3 (Briefing.com consensus 34.3); Prior 34.3
  • The key takeaway from the report, however, is that it muddles the economic view for the Fed, with its twin planks of negative job growth and higher wage inflation. Accordingly, look for the Fed to sit on its policy hands, unwilling to cut rates for now as it also contends with the spike in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Iran war.
• January Retail Sales -0.2% (Briefing.com consensus -0.1%); Prior 0.0%, January Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.0% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%); Prior 0.0%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sales activity was disrupted by the winter storms, so the result isn't as disappointing as it looks, which comes through in the fact that nonstore retailer sales were up a robust 1.9% month-over-month.
• January Business Inventories 0.1%; Prior 0.0%
• Consumer credit increased by $8.1 billion in January (Briefing.com consensus: $9.9 billion) following an upwardly revised $25.2 billion increase (from $24.0 billion) in December.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the credit expansion was modest but fairly balanced in January, with revolving and nonrevolving credit both increasing for the month.