Weekly Wrap

The stock market logged a choppy but resilient week, with the major indices holding near record levels amid a mix of strong mega-cap leadership, earnings-driven moves, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Early in the week, stocks showed some hesitation following mixed developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations. Concerns about a potential breakdown in talks drove oil prices higher and pressured equities, contributing to bouts of profit-taking after the market's recent run. These dynamics were evident in sessions where early gains faded as crude spiked and headlines suggested rising tension, highlighting the market's sensitivity to energy prices and geopolitical risk.

Despite that backdrop, the market repeatedly found support. A key turning point came with the extension of the ceasefire, which helped fuel a rally to fresh record highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. That move was driven by concentrated strength in mega-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, with AI enthusiasm and strong earnings results powering gains.

However, leadership remained narrow. While the cap-weighted indices advanced, equal-weighted measures and the Dow lagged at times, reflecting uneven participation. Sector performance was mixed throughout the week, with strength in technology and energy offset by periodic weakness in health care, financials, and real estate.

Earnings reactions played a significant role in shaping daily action. Semiconductor stocks surged on upbeat results and outlooks, while some software and consumer names saw sharp declines following disappointing guidance or cautious commentary. This created a highly selective environment, where individual stock moves often diverged sharply.

Geopolitical headlines also contributed to intraday volatility, including brief selloffs tied to unverified reports that were later reversed. Meanwhile, oil prices remained elevated, adding another layer of uncertainty.

Overall, the major indices remained near highs, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both establishing new record highs.

Monday:

The stock market started the week on a subdued note following last week's push to record highs, as mega-cap and tech names saw some profit-taking amid renewed geopolitical uncertainty.

The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.3%), and DJIA (flat) spent the session drifting modestly below their flatlines as investors reacted to mixed reports regarding the state of the next round of talks between the U.S. and Iran.

Stocks opened modestly lower in reaction to weekend developments that seemingly put the talks on hold, and moved to session lows shortly before midday after President Trump told Bloomberg that it is "highly unlikely" he will extend the current ceasefire if a deal is not reached this week.

However, the major averages quickly rebounded from their worst levels amid reports that delegates from both the U.S. and Iran will travel to Pakistan to engage in talks this week.

Crude oil futures settled today's session $5.18 higher (+6.2%) at $89.40 per barrel. While the rise in oil prices coincided with a pullback in select areas of the market, particularly recent leaders, crude remained below the $90 per barrel mark, signaling a degree of stabilization.

Sector strength was mixed and variable throughout the session, though weakness across mega-cap and tech-heavy sectors kept the major averages from making a move into positive territory.

The communication services sector (-1.4%) was the worst performer, as Meta Platforms (META 670.91, -17.64, -2.56%) and Alphabet (GOOG 335.40, -4.00, -1.18%) provided poor mega-cap leadership, while Netflix (NFLX 94.83, -2.48, -2.55%) declined further and failed to attract buy-the-dip interest following disappointing Q2 guidance in last week's earnings report.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.7%) was another laggard, with Tesla (TSLA 392.49, -8.13, -2.03%) moving lower ahead of its own earnings release this week, while cruise lines and other oil-sensitive names retreated today.

Meanwhile, the information technology sector (flat) made a steady move higher throughout the afternoon, which saw it finish flat for the day. Intel (INTC 65.70, -2.80, -4.09%) was a notable laggard, but the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.5%) still managed a modest gain.

Elsewhere in the sector, computer hardware names such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 27.82, +1.38, +5.22%) and Dell (DELL 204.25, +7.70, +3.92%) outperformed, while solid gains across software stocks pushed the iShares GS Software ETF 1.4% higher.

Additionally, Apple (AAPL 273.05, +2.82, +1.04%) was a mega-cap standout.

Late improvements to the information technology sector helped both the major averages and the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-0.4%) finish considerably improved from their worst levels, though it was not enough to extend the Nasdaq Composite's winning streak, which was snapped after an impressive 13 sessions.

Elsewhere, strength was mixed, with five S&P 500 sectors posting modest gains.

The materials sector (+0.6%) captured the widest gain with Steel Dynamics (STLD 209.35, +9.03, +4.51%) finishing as one of the S&P 500's top movers ahead of its earnings release, while the financials sector (+0.3%) was supported by broad strength.

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.3%) outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.2%), reflecting solid participation under the surface.

All told, it was a relatively quiet Monday session. There was some renewed geopolitical uncertainty coming out of the weekend, but the market's muted reaction suggests investors continue to view a more durable ceasefire as the base case, despite elevated near-term uncertainty. Growth stocks took a modest step back after a strong rally, but the major averages remain just below recent record highs. While the market continues to monitor U.S.-Iran developments, attention is set to shift more firmly toward earnings as reporting season ramps up this week, with investors looking for continued growth and forward guidance to sustain the recent momentum.

There was no economic data of note today.

U.S. Treasuries began the week on a slightly lower note with the market showing limited concern over a weekend speedbump on the path to a peace deal with Iran. The 2-year note yield settled up two basis points to 3.72%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.25%.

Tuesday:

The stock market had a relatively busy day today, with a significant wave of earnings reports, continued geopolitical volatility, and a smattering of corporate headlines from some of the market's largest companies giving investors plenty to assess. The market is also likely still digesting the scope of its recent push into record territory.

The S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%), and DJIA (-0.6%) spent the first two hours or so of the session with solid gains before retreating as oil prices spiked amid reports that Iran may not send delegates to Pakistan for the next round of negotiations with the U.S. The 10-day ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is set to expire tomorrow, adding a heightened sense of uncertainty to the situation as President Trump has threatened renewed strikes against Iran if a deal is not struck. The market moved to session lows in the final hour of trading after CNBC reported that Iran will not attend talks in Pakistan unless the U.S. "abandons its threats," and The Associated Press reported Vice President JD Vance called off his trip to Pakistan, where he was set to lead the U.S. side of negotiations.

Crude oil futures settled today's session $2.40 higher (+2.7%) at $91.80 per barrel, with the bump giving investors pause after the recent rally to record highs signaled that markets may have largely looked past the conflict or already priced in a path toward de-escalation.

Participation was weak in the broader market, with only the energy sector (+1.3%) finishing in positive territory. The sector was supported by the increase in oil prices and a nice move from Halliburton (HAL 38.15, +1.47, +4.01%) after the company beat earnings expectations.

The top-weighted information technology sector (-0.2%) was a relative outperformer, though it could not maintain its modest gain in the final hour of the session. Software names posted another winning session, with Microsoft (MSFT 424.16, +6.09, +1.46%) a mega-cap standout amid a weak showing for the market's largest names, and the iShares GS Software ETF advancing 0.5%.

Those gains were largely offset by weakness in Apple (AAPL 266.17, -6.88, -2.52%) after the company announced CEO Tim Cook will step down, with John Ternus set to take his place on September 1. NVIDIA (NVDA 199.88, -2.18, -1.08%) also charted a lower course.

The consumer discretionary sector (-0.5%) also moved into negative territory late in the session. Amazon (AMZN 249.91, +1.63, +0.66%) notched a modest gain after announcing an expanded partnership with Anthropic, highlighted by a potential $25 billion incremental investment and a commitment from Anthropic to spend over $100 billion on AWS over the next decade.

Elsewhere in the sector, homebuilders moved higher after D.R. Horton (DHI 162.20, +8.86, +5.78%) turned in a solid earnings report, while Tractor Supply (TSCO 39.57, -5.24, -11.69%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component after missing earnings estimates.

Earnings were a key driver of price action in the broader market, with most of today's batch easily topping estimates. Northern Trust (NTRS 171.74, +12.75, +8.02%) was the best-performing S&P 500 component, while UnitedHealth (UNH 346.01, +22.53, +6.96%) was the top Dow component. However, several notable names beat estimates but issued softer guidance, resulting in sharp retreats today. Northrop Grumman (NOC 611.13, -45.85, -6.98%) and GE Aerospace (GE 286.73, -16.87, -5.56%) were examples of this trend, which weighed heavily on the industrials sector (-1.4%).

The real estate sector (-1.9%) faced the widest loss as treasury yields moved higher today.

Outside of the S&P 500, the smaller-cap Russell 2000 (-1.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.6%) followed a similar trajectory to the major averages.

All told, today's session underscored the challenges the market faces as it attempts to push deeper into record territory. While investors have largely looked past the U.S.-Iran conflict, it remains a potential source of volatility through its impact on oil prices and broader risk sentiment. More importantly, elevated energy costs could begin to pressure margins as earnings season comes into focus, making guidance critical in determining whether current growth expectations can hold.

U.S. Treasuries retreated on Tuesday with shorter tenors extending their losses from Monday while the long bond reluctantly followed after holding its ground yesterday. The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.78%, and the 10-year note yield settled up four basis points to 4.29%.

Reviewing today's data:

• March Retail Sales 1.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.6%, March Retail Sales, ex-auto 1.9% (Briefing.com consensus 0.9%); Prior was revised to 0.7% from 0.5%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that retail sales look great from a headline perspective, but higher gas prices and higher prices in general were the main drivers. Excluding gasoline sales, retail sales were up 0.6% month-over-month, which looks good, but remember retail sales are not adjusted for price changes. Accordingly, it becomes evident that the sales gains in March were driven more by higher prices than increased volume, which is a better indication of demand.
• February Business Inventories 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior -0.1%
• March Pending Home Sales 1.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to 2.5% from 1.8%

Wednesday:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite started on higher ground today and held that higher ground throughout today's session. In fact, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq finished at their best levels of the day and with record closing highs. They did so, fortified by leadership from the tech stocks and specifically the mega-cap tech stocks, software stocks, and semiconductor stocks.

It was a concentrated rally effort, but because the market's most influential sector was in a leadership position, the major indices looked better than breadth figures suggested.

To that end, advancers ended only slightly ahead of decliners at the NYSE but held a more comfortable lead at the tech-dominated Nasdaq.

Buying efforts today followed President Trump's announcement that he will extend the ceasefire with Iran to allow its fractured leadership more time to come up with a unified proposal for securing a lasting ceasefire. The caveat is that Iran only has a short time to do so or it will face a resumption of bombing efforts.

Stocks were not rattled by this thought, yet oil prices ($93.01, +3.45, +3.9%) reflected some lingering nervousness about the unsettled state of affairs with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz remaining a chokepoint for global energy supplies and goods.

The higher prices took some steam out of the broad market relief rally seen at the start of today's trading. The information technology (+2.3%), communication services (+1.4%), and energy (+1.1%) sectors were the only sectors up more than 1.0%. Four sectors--real state (-0.7%), industrials (-0.2%), financials (-0.2%), and utilities (-0.2%)--finished lower.

The underperformance of the industrials sector was a bit surprising given how Boeing (BA 231.28, +12.12, +5.53%), GE Vernova (GEV 1126.01, +134.71, +13.59%), and Masco (MAS 73.95, +7.19, +10.77%) fared after their earnings reports, but weakness in the defense stocks and airline stocks dictated the sector bias. United Airlines (UAL 91.71, -5.42, -5.58%) was a focal point, falling sharply after it cut its full-year outlook due in large part to rising fuel costs.

Elsewhere, Adobe (ADBE 255.94, +8.76, +3.54%) set a good tone for continued bargain hunting in the software space after it announced a $25 billion share repurchase program, while the mega-cap stocks set a good tone for the market. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.06, +1.69, +2.05%) jumped 2.0%.

Tesla (TSLA 387.20, +0.78, +0.20%), which is reporting after today's close, trailed the mega-cap cohort, which was led by Apple (AAPL 273.17, +7.00, +2.63%), Amazon (AMZN 255.36, +5.45, +2.18%), and Alphabet (GOOG 337.73, +7.26, +2.20%), which unveiled new chips to power next-gen agentic AI training and inference at scale.

There was no U.S. economic data of note today. The Treasury market ended the day roughly flat, battling back from early selling efforts with the help of a strong $13 billion 20-yr bond reopening.

Thursday:

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite posted record closing highs yesterday. Today they advanced to new highs, but they were unable to retain that posture and closed the session with losses. The selling interest wasn't acute at the index level. That was reserved mostly for individual stocks, but to be fair, so were big gains.

Some geopolitical headlines got the market stirred up at times today, but otherwise it was a day of modest attrition for the indices after a big run.

The opening was dictated by a mixed reaction to earnings reports since yesterday's close. The S&P 500 information technology sector (-1.5%) was the main point of attraction in that regard. Texas Instruments (TXN 282.23, +45.92, +19.43%) led the semiconductor group to another win, whereas ServiceNow (NOW 84.94, -18.13, -17.59%) was knocked out of service after its earnings report, triggering a renewed fallout in the software stocks, which were also contending with a resumption of private-credit worries.

For the day, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index was up 1.7%, and the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV 83.60, -5.14, -5.79%) was down nearly 6.0%.

Tesla (TSLA 373.60, -13.91, -3.59%) was another laggard of note, failing to benefit from its better-than-expected Q1 earnings result as investors focused instead on Elon Musk's vague declaration that a very significant increase in capex is expected. The consumer discretionary sector (-0.9%) felt the weight of losses in Tesla and most components, including lululemon athletica (LULU 141.66, -21.79, -13.33%), which named former Nike executive Heidi O'Neill as its new CEO. The stock's reaction made it clear that investors weren't impressed.

The S&P 500 utilities (+2.8%), industrials (+1.8%), consumer staples (+1.7%), and real estate (+1.3%) sectors delivered some impressive percentage gains in a down market, boosted by healthy gains in the likes of NextEra Energy (NEE 96.25, +6.25, +6.94%), Dover (DOV 228.15, +11.98, +5.54%), Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP 28.53, +1.99, +7.50%), and Crown Castle (CCI 87.52, +1.51, +1.76%) following their earnings results.

The market hit an air pocket in the afternoon session amid reports that Iran's speaker had resigned and that Iran's air defenses were engaging hostile targets. Long story short, both reports were debunked, enabling the indices to recover most of what was lost in the knee-jerk selling that occurred after the initial reports.

A full recovery, though, was impeded by the underperformance of the mega-cap cohort and reservations about what could transpire overnight in the geopolitical arena.

WTI crude futures settled the session up 3.0% at $95.76/bbl. The 10-yr note yield was up three basis points to 4.32%.

Reviewing today's economic data:

• Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 18 increased by 6,000 to 214,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 212,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 11 increased by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there is nothing in the level of initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—that suggests the labor market is in a dire state.
• The preliminary April S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI checked in at 54.0 vs. 52.3 prior.
• The preliminary April S&P Global U.S. Services PMI checked in at 51.3 vs. 49.8 prior.

Friday:

It was another record-setting day for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which were lifted by leadership from the mega-cap stocks and a blistering advance by the semiconductor stocks that was paced by Intel (INTC 82.57, +15.79, +23.64%) following its better-than-expected Q1 earnings report and outlook.

The strength of that leadership kept a bid in the information technology sector (+2.5%) throughout the session, which was enough, along with gains in the consumer discretionary (+1.4%) and communications services (+0.9%) sectors, to keep the market-cap-weighted indices afloat, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.2%) and equal-weighted S&P 500 (-0.2%) languished with modest losses.

AI enthusiasm, momentum, performance chasing, and fundamental earnings strength were the tailwinds pushing the semiconductor stocks to record heights. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, led by Intel and NVIDIA (NVDA 208.26, +8.62, +4.32%), surged 4.3%, leaving it up 38.6% since the end of March.

NVIDIA was part of a mega-cap cohort that strengthened as the session progressed. The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK 84.22, +1.35, +1.63%) advanced 1.6% and closed near its best levels of the session, underpinned by added strength in Amazon (AMZN 263.99, +8.91, +3.49%), Meta Platforms (META 675.05, +15.90, +2.41%), Microsoft (MSFT 424.60, +8.85, +2.13%), and Alphabet A (GOOGL 344.40, +5.51, +1.63%).

These leadership stocks carried the day, which was also featured the DOJ dropping its criminal probe of Fed Chair Powell, earnings results from Procter & Gamble (PG 148.11, +2.40, +1.65%), and back-and-forth headlines touting the possibility of the U.S. and Iran meeting again this weekend in Pakistan.

It was still unclear as of this post if the two sides were going to actually meet or if they were going to be in Pakistan and use go-betweens to lay the groundwork for resuming ceasefire discussions. WTI crude futures, which flirted with $98.00/bbl at one point, settled the day down 1.4% at $94.42/bbl.

The stock market handled the uncertainty with a sense of resolve, much like it has since the initial ceasefire agreement was announced, clinging to the view that what comes next won't be profoundly harmful to the global economy.

That point notwithstanding, there were pockets of weakness in today's market. The health care sector (-1.4%) was plagued by losses in most components, but namely Eli Lilly (LLY 884.18, -33.47, -3.65%) and HCA (HCA 432.50, -41.53, -8.76%). The latter company reported earnings results that were tarnished by weaker-than-expected patient volumes.

Other laggards included the industrials (-0.9%), financials (-0.6%), consumer staples (-0.4%), real estate (-0.4%), and energy (-0.3%) sectors.

U.S. Treasuries finished a down week on a mostly higher note with shorter tenors pacing a Friday bounce that pressured yields from their highest levels in over two weeks. The 2-yr note yield, which is more sensitive to changes in the fed funds rate, was down five basis points to 3.78%, while the 10-yr note yield ended down one basis point at 4.31%.

Reviewing today's economic data:

• The final reading for the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for April edged up to 49.8 (Briefing.com consensus: 47.6) from the preliminary (and record low) reading of 47.6. The final reading for March was 53.3. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 52.2.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was some slight improvement from the preliminary report as gas prices eased a bit following the ceasefire, yet gas prices are still much higher than where they were before the war began, which is contributing to the stark reality that consumer sentiment is near the trough seen in June 2022.