Weekly Wrap

The stock market endured another volatile week as a surge in oil prices tied to the escalating conflict involving Iran dominated the macro backdrop. The major averages finished lower across the board, with the S&P 500 declining 1.6%, the Nasdaq Composite falling 1.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average losing 2.0%. The S&P 500 also touched a new low for 2026 on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite closed the week below its 200-day moving average (22,176.42), underscoring the pressure on growth-oriented stocks.

Smaller-cap stocks finished similarly, with the Russell 2000 declining 1.8% and the S&P Mid Cap 400 falling 2.0%.

The defining theme of the week was the market’s sensitivity to energy prices. Crude oil swung sharply throughout the week on headlines surrounding the conflict and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, ultimately finishing 5.5% higher. Each move higher in crude pressured equities as investors reassessed the inflation outlook and the Federal Reserve’s policy path. By the end of the week, futures markets were no longer confident the Fed would deliver even a single 25-basis point rate cut in 2025.

That shift in expectations was reflected in the Treasury market as well. Yields moved steadily higher during the week as investors priced in the inflationary implications of rising energy prices. By Friday’s close, the 2-year note yield had risen 17 basis points on the week to 3.73%, while the 10-year note yield climbed 16 basis points to 4.29%.

Sector performance largely mirrored the impact of higher oil prices. The energy sector was the only cyclical group to finish in positive territory, rising 2.1% for the week. Defensive areas also held up relatively well, with utilities gaining 0.4% and consumer staples slipping just 0.2%.

Most other sectors struggled. Financials fell 3.4% amid rising yields and renewed pressure in private credit markets, while industrials declined 3.2% as transportation stocks were hit by rising fuel costs. Consumer discretionary dropped 3.0%, weighed down by weakness in travel-related names and homebuilders as higher yields pushed mortgage rates higher. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF fell 5.4% for the week.

Technology held up somewhat better than the broader market but still finished lower. The information technology sector slipped 0.8% and communication services declined 1.2%. Under the surface, performance diverged. Semiconductor stocks showed resilience, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index rising 1.8% for the week, while software names faced persistent selling pressure, sending the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF down 4.3%.

Mega-cap growth stocks also struggled. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF declined 1.8% as several large technology names reversed earlier gains. Meta Platforms weighed on communication services after reports its next AI model would be delayed.

Economic data played a secondary role relative to the geopolitical developments. February CPI matched the Briefing.com consensus at both the headline and core levels, while the January PCE Price Index also met expectations with a 0.3% monthly increase. However, investors largely looked past the reports given that upcoming inflation readings will likely reflect the recent spike in energy prices. Meanwhile, the second estimate for fourth-quarter GDP was revised sharply lower to 0.7% from 1.4%, while the GDP price deflator was revised higher.

Ultimately, the week reinforced that markets are currently trading on energy prices. With crude oil volatile amid the conflict involving Iran and continued disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, equities remain highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines that could alter the outlook for supply, inflation, and Federal Reserve policy.

• Nasdaq Composite: -1.3% week-to-date
• S&P 500: -1.6% week-to-date
• Russell 2000: -1.8% week-to-date
• DJIA: -2.0% week-to-date
• S&P Mid Cap 400: -2.0% week-to-date

Monday: 

The stock market had an eventful start to the week, with the S&P 500 (+0.8%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+0.5%) rebounding from sharp early losses as oil prices made a decisive move lower this afternoon amid geopolitical developments in Iran.

Oil surged past $100 per barrel this morning, testing the $120 mark and prompting the major averages to open with losses wider than 1%. The Nasdaq Composite briefly moved below its 200-day moving average (22,101.90).

Oil stabilized around the $100 mark following headlines that the G7 will meet again tomorrow to discuss a release of global oil stockpiles to combat the surge in prices. CNBC reported that the meeting will occur tomorrow morning, with talks among G7 nations currently "positive" around a release.

The major averages spent much of the session trading with more modest losses, though weakness remained relatively broad-based. 

Crude oil futures finished today's session $3.87 higher (+4.3%) at $94.73 a barrel, though another price swing remained in store. President Trump told CBS News in a phone interview that the war in Iran "could be over soon" as the U.S. is very far ahead of his initial 4-to-5-week estimated time frame. Additionally, President Trump noted that ships are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, though he is considering "taking it over."

Oil prices fell below their flatlines, sending stocks higher in broad fashion. As of just before 4:30 p.m. ET, crude oil is currently trading $5.56 (-6.1%) lower at $85.34 a barrel. 

Nine S&P 500 sectors would finish with gains, leaving just the energy (-0.4%) and financials (-0.5%) sectors in negative territory. 

While the energy sector moved lower amid the decrease in oil prices, the financials sector was a laggard throughout the session and finished well above its session lows. Insurance names such as Arthur J. Gallagher (AJG 217.78, -10.35, -4.54%) were among the worst performers, while major banking names put up mixed performances. 

Meanwhile, the top-weighted information technology sector (+1.8%) posted the widest gain. The sector held a modest gain for much of the session even while the broader market traded lower, supported by strength in its semiconductor components. NVIDIA (NVDA 182.65, +4.83, +2.72%) was a mega-cap standout, while memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 588.73, +61.40, +11.64%) posted the widest gains, helping the PHLX Semiconductor Index finish 3.9% higher. 

Elsewhere, the communication services sector (+1.1%) also notched a solid gain as Alphabet (GOOG 306.01, +7.71, +2.58%) provided strong leadership. 

Live Nation (LYV 165.80, +9.67, +6.19%) topped the sector's leaderboard after the company reached a settlement with the Department of Justice in an antitrust case that will allow the company to keep Ticketmaster. 

The health care sector (+0.9%) rounds out the top three performing sectors, supported by broad strength in its components and a strong performance from Moderna (MRNA 55.74, +3.22, +6.13%). 

Though not components of the sector, Hims & Hers Health (HIMS 22.16, +6.42, +40.79%) traded sharply higher today after confirming a strategic pivot for its U.S. weight-loss business that entails bringing FDA-approved Wegovy and Ozempic (semaglutide) medications onto its telehealth platform and moving away from broadly marketed compounded GLP-1 products, a shift that resolves a legal dispute with Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO 39.78, +1.20, +3.11%) and expands patient access.

Meanwhile, the Russell 2000 (+1.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.0%) notched solid gains of their own, surging higher as oil prices fell this afternoon. 

Altogether, the broader market made an impressive intraday move as oil prices stabilized and then moved lower this afternoon. While the geopolitical backdrop remains fluid, the market will look for further color from tomorrow's Group of Seven energy meeting, where officials are expected to discuss a potential coordinated release of global oil stockpiles. At the same time, developments surrounding the situation in Iran remain a key driver of price action. Ideally for equities, oil prices will continue to move lower in the near term before the recent spike begins to meaningfully weigh on corporate margins or feed through into broader inflation pressures.

There was no economic data of note today. 

U.S. Treasuries started the new week with a continuation of the recent volatility, but an intraday bounce saved the long bond from another lower finish while 5s and shorter tenors added to last week's losses. The 2-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.59%, and the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.14%. 

Tuesday:

The stock market had a choppy session today, with ongoing geopolitical and energy developments triggering several broader-market moves throughout the day. The S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (flat), and DJIA (-0.1%) finished near their flatlines as afternoon developments largely negated earlier progress. The Russell 2000 (-0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.5%) followed a similar trajectory. 

Oil prices retreated sharply after comments from President Trump yesterday evening suggested the conflict involving Iran may be approaching a resolution. The president also floated the possibility of the U.S. "taking over" the Strait of Hormuz, which helped spark yesterday's sharp decline in crude.

Crude extended those losses earlier today, although the initial relief in equities was somewhat muted as investors questioned whether tensions in the region could truly ease in the near term. Reuters reported that Iranian officials indicated the blockade would remain in place unless U.S. and Israeli strikes come to an end.

The major averages made a decisive move higher roughly an hour into the session after reports that the International Energy Agency had called an emergency meeting with member nations to review supply conditions and discuss whether strategic reserves could be released to stabilize the market if necessary.

Developments continued to emerge throughout the afternoon. Energy Secretary Chris Wright wrote on X that the U.S. Navy had escorted a tanker safely through the Strait of Hormuz, though CNBC later disputed that claim while separately reporting that a Ghana-flagged tanker had successfully transited the waterway.

Meanwhile, CBS reporter Jennifer Jacobs reported on X that U.S. intelligence has observed signs Iran may be preparing to place naval mines in the shipping lanes of the strait, using smaller vessels capable of carrying several mines. CNN later corroborated the report.

Even with the ongoing uncertainty, crude oil futures settled sharply lower on the day, dropping $10.88 (-11.5%) to $83.85 per barrel.

The energy sector (-1.3%) was a laggard again today, extending this week's losses. It was not the only sector to finish in negative territory, however, as this afternoon's developments pressured the broader market from its mid-morning highs. 

The health care sector (-0.7%) also lagged, with CNC finishing as the worst-performing S&P 500 name after the company's CEO said at a conference that Affordable Care Act membership declines could be worse than previously projected.

The utilities sector (-0.7%) logged a similar loss, while relative weakness across software stocks pressured several pockets of the market. 

Meanwhile, the information technology sector (+0.1%) spent considerable time atop the sector leaderboard with a solid gain amid strength in its chipmaker components, though the gains were whittled away throughout the afternoon, leaving the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.7%) with a more modest gain. 

The iShares GS Software ETF finished 2.3% lower as software names came under considerable pressure. Oracle (ORCL 149.49, -2.07, -1.37%) retreated ahead of its earnings release this afternoon. 

Weakness across other packaged software names, along with financial publishing stocks, pushed the financials (-0.6%) and industrials (-0.6%) sectors near the bottom of today's standings. 

The communication services sector (+0.3%) escaped with the widest gain as modest strength in Meta Platforms (META 654.07, +6.68, +1.03%) and Alphabet (GOOG 306.93, +0.92, +0.30%) outweighed broader weakness in the sector, including a particularly sharp slide in Paramount Skydance (PSKY 10.33, -0.86, -7.69%). 

While weakness was broad today, it was also relatively modest. Only the energy sector (-1.3%) closed with a loss wider than 1.0%.

Reports that Iran is deploying naval mines in the Strait of Hormuz added another layer of uncertainty to the situation late in the session, reminding investors that conditions in the region remain fluid even as oil prices pulled back sharply today. The prospect of disruptions to shipping through one of the world's most important energy chokepoints continues to leave markets sensitive to any new developments on the geopolitical front.

U.S. Treasuries were mixed on Tuesday with 5s and shorter tenors recording modest gains while the long bond lagged after outperforming during the market's recent slide from February highs. Treasuries reached highs in late morning action but faced some pressure after a weak $58 billion 3-year note sale. The 2-year note yield settled down two basis points to 3.57%, the 10-year note yield finished unchanged at 4.14%, and the 30-year note yield settled up three basis points to 3.77%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• February NFIB Small Business Optimism 98.8 (Briefing.com consensus 99.5); Prior 99.3
• February Existing Home Sales 4.09 mln (Briefing.com consensus 3.88 mln); Prior was revised to 4.02 mln from 3.91 mln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that sales increased despite continued pressure on affordability as median prices grew for the 32nd month in a row.

Wednesday:

The stock market had a choppy midweek session amid a rebound in oil prices, with the S&P 500 (-0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%), and DJIA (-0.6%) finishing mostly lower. 

Crude oil futures settled today's session $3.03 higher (+3.6%) at $86.88 per barrel amid reports of difficulties in the Strait of Hormuz, with CNBC reporting that three cargo ships had been hit by projectiles and the U.S. has sunk several Iranian vessels. 

The IEA confirmed that member countries will release 400 million barrels of oil from their reserves, but the news was largely priced in since the recommendation was made known yesterday. 

In related news, the broader market dipped this afternoon following an ABC News report that the FBI warned California law enforcement that Iran had allegedly aspired to launch a surprise drone attack from a vessel off the U.S. West Coast targeting unspecified locations in the state if the U.S. conducted strikes against the country.

The recent volatility in the energy market was not reflected in the February CPI (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and Core CPI (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) readings, which came in line with expectations, a modestly positive development given next month's reading likely will reflect the increase across fuel prices. 

Still, the broader market trended lower today, with just three S&P 500 sectors capturing a gain. 

The energy sector (+2.4%) unsurprisingly notched the widest gain amid the rebound in oil prices, moving into positive week-to-date territory. 

This week's top performer, the information technology sector (+0.3%), also finished modestly higher. Oracle (ORCL 163.09, +13.69, +9.16%) was among the best-performing S&P 500 stocks today after an impressive beat-and-raise earnings report. However, software names dotted the bottom of the sector's standings, with the iShares GS Software ETF (+0.1%) finishing flattish. 

The recent software weakness has also resulted in renewed pressure across asset managers amid persistent concerns about private credit quality after Financial Times reported that JPMorgan has begun marking down some private credit portfolios linked to software debt, which could reduce the borrowing capacity of affected companies.

Separately, Bloomberg reported that Cliffwater's flagship private credit fund received redemption requests exceeding 7%, serving as another piece of evidence that the group is under pressure.

The financials sector (-0.8%) was a laggard today as a result. 

Other underperformers included the consumer staples sector (-1.3%), which faced particular weakness across its food names after Campbell Soup (CPB 22.94, -1.74, -7.05%) missed earnings estimates, while the real estate (-1.1%) and utilities (-0.8%) sectors logged similar losses. 

Losses were modest elsewhere, which helped the major averages log a mixed finish despite relatively broad weakness. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-0.2%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.3%) logged similar losses.

Overall, the session reflected a cautious tone as investors monitored developments in the Strait of Hormuz and the potential for further disruptions to energy markets. With oil volatility rising again, geopolitical headlines will likely continue to influence market direction in the near term.

U.S. Treasuries faced renewed pressure on Wednesday, which sent yields on 10s and 30s to their highest levels since early February while the 2-year yield settled at its highest level since late September. The 2-year note yield settled up six basis points to 3.63%, and the 10-year note yield settled up seven basis points to 4.21%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Total CPI increased 0.3% month-over-month in February (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and was up 2.4% year-over-year, versus 2.4% for the 12 months ending in January. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) and was up 2.5% year-over-year, versus 2.5% for the 12 months ending in January.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it matched expectations at the headline and core levels, which is mildly positive, given the recent surge in energy prices that will increase the market's expectations for a hotter reading in March.
• The weekly MBA Mortgage Index was up 3.2% after increasing 11.0% a week ago. The Purchase Index was up 7.8% while the Refinance Index increased 0.5%.
• The Treasury reported a $307.5 billion deficit for February (Briefing.com consensus -$170.0 bln), which was much wider than expected and it was a bit wider than the $307.0 billion deficit reported for February 2025. Receipts totaled $313.1 billion, while outlays reached $620.6 billion.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that while the February deficit was much larger than expected, the year-to-date deficit is nearly $150 billion smaller than it was at this time last year, reflecting some fiscal improvement.

Thursday:

Stocks had another tough session as rising oil prices continue to put broad pressure on the market. The S&P 500 (-1.5%), Nasdaq Composite (-1.9%), and DJIA (-1.6%) finished firmly lower across the board, with each index now in negative week-to-date territory. 

Oil climbed before the stock market opened amid reports that more tankers had been struck in the Strait of Hormuz. CNBC reported that Iran's new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, seeks to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed.

Energy Secretary Chris Wright told CNBC that the U.S. Navy is not yet ready to escort tankers through the strait, though it aims to be able to do so by the end of the month.

In the meantime, the supply disruption continues to push oil prices higher, which has weighed heavily on the market's expectations for policy easing from the Fed this year. Crude oil futures settled today's session $8.84 higher (+10.2%) at $95.72 per barrel. At the same time, the market's implied probability of at least a 25-basis point rate cut does not eclipse 50% until the December FOMC meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

While the energy sector (+1.0%) notched a nice gain as oil prices surged higher, the market faced broad weakness today with eight S&P 500 sectors finishing lower. 

The industrials sector (-2.5%) logged the widest retreat as airline and trucking names such as Southwest Air (LUV 38.61, -3.24, -7.74%) and Old Dominion (ODFL 176.24, -12.54, -6.64%) continue to struggle amid rising fuel costs. 

Similarly, cruise lines such as Carnival (CCL 23.92, -2.05, -7.89%) were among the worst performers in the consumer discretionary sector (-2.2%). 

Elsewhere in the sector, homebuilder names also lagged as diminishing rate cut expectations push Treasury yields higher. The iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF finished 2.9% lower. 

Tesla (TSLA 395.01, -12.81, -3.14%) was also a "magnificent seven" laggard amid a tough day for mega-cap stocks, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF retreating 1.8%. 

Weakness across mega-cap tech pushed the information technology (-1.7%) and communication services (-1.6%) sectors lower as well. Chipmakers were a point of significant weakness, sending the PHLX Semiconductor Index 3.4% lower. 

Elsewhere, the financials sector (-1.6%) logged a similar retreat as asset managers faced renewed pressure after Bloomberg reported that Morgan Stanley (MS 154.30, -6.59, -4.10%) and Cliffwater are capping withdrawals from private credit funds after investors rushed to redeem funds.

The defensive utilities (+0.7%) and consumer staples (+0.1%) sectors garnered some modest rotational interest today as growth and cyclical sectors lagged, though the health care sector (-1.8%) faced broad pressure.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (-2.1%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-2.1%) trailed the major averages as growth stocks underperformed today. 

The major averages will enter the final session of the week in negative territory as rising oil prices continue to prompt inflationary concerns, creating a high-volatility environment. Investors will receive the January PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) and Core PCE Price Index (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) tomorrow morning, and while the report will not yet reflect the surge in energy prices, expectations that future readings could run hotter due to the oil supply disruption make this release particularly important.

U.S. Treasuries retreated again on Thursday with shorter tenors leading the slide amid ongoing focus on the rising price of oil and the broader implications for the global economy. The 2-year note yield settled up 13 basis points to 3.76%, and the 10-year note yield settled up seven basis points to 4.27%.

Reviewing today's data:

• January Housing Starts 1.487 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.340 mln); Prior was revised to 1.387 mln from 1.404 mln, January Building Permits 1.376 mln (Briefing.com consensus 1.392 mln); Prior was revised to 1.455 mln from 1.448 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it beat expectations thanks to strong growth in multi-unit starts while single-unit housing starts were down 2.8% month-over-month.
• January Trade Balance -$54.5 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$67.9 bln); Prior was revised to -$72.9 bln from -$70.3 bln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the monthly trade deficit returned to the $50 billion range, which has been a familiar zone since last year's implementation of tariffs.
• Weekly Initial Claims 213K (Briefing.com consensus 215K); Prior was revised to 214K from 213K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.850 mln; Prior was revised to 1.871 mln from 1.868 mln
  • The key takeaway from the report is that claims remain just above the 200,000 mark, reflecting a low-firing environment.

Friday:

The stock market ended a tough week on a familiar note, with the S&P 500 (-0.6%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%), and DJIA (-0.3%) finishing lower amid a renewed surge in oil prices. 

Stocks opened to solid, broad-based gains as crude oil dipped this morning, trading down to nearly $92 per barrel shortly before the stock market opened.

Oil began to creep higher in the late morning hours, ultimately settling today's session 3.0% higher at $98.56 per barrel. The Wall Street Journal reported that the Pentagon is sending more Marines and warships to the Middle East, potentially to help escort tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, the market is unconvinced that the war in Iran will come to a timely conclusion. 

The bounce in oil prices saw stocks largely cede their early gains. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher this morning, though just five finished with gains. 

Tech stocks faced the sharpest reversal, with the information technology sector (-1.3%) finishing as the worst performer after trading over 1.0% higher to start the session. 

Oracle (ORCL 155.10, -4.06, -2.55%) gave back some of its post-earnings strength, with software stocks being a point of relative weakness today. The iShares GS Software ETF finished 0.9% lower. 

Chipmakers were among the early outperformers, and while memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 661.50, +42.68, +6.90%) and Micron (MU 426.13, +20.78, +5.13%) put together solid performances, weakness across other chipmakers such as Broadcom (AVGO 322.16, -13.81, -4.11%) and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 193.39, -4.35, -2.20%) left the PHLX Semiconductor Index up just 0.1% higher after holding a gain that exceeded 2.0%. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Adobe (ADBE 249.32, -20.46, -7.58%) lagged despite topping earnings expectations after it was announced that the company's CEO will be departing. 

Meta Platforms (META 613.71, -24.47, -3.83%) was another notable laggard today following reports that the company's latest AI model would be postponed. The stock's underperformance weighed heavily on the communication services sector (-1.0%). 

The materials sector (-1.0%) rounds out the three S&P 500 sectors that logged declines of 1.0% or wider. Fertilizer names such as Mosaic (MOS 29.31, -2.05, -6.55%) and CF Industries (CF 129.58, -6.42, -4.72%) gave back some of yesterday's strength amid reports of supply disruption in the Middle East. 

Meanwhile, the defensive utilities (+0.9%) and consumer staples (+0.5%) sectors outperformed amid the weakness in tech and other growth stocks today. 

The energy sector (+0.4%) also notched a modest gain as oil prices climbed, while the real estate (+0.2%) and financials (+0.1%) sectors finished just slightly higher. 

Investors also received a big batch of economic data this morning, which was a bit of a mixed bag. There was a downward revision to Q4 GDP (to 0.7% from 1.4%; Briefing.com consensus 1.4%), a January Personal Income/Outlays report that showed the PCE Price Index (0.3%; Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) increase 2.8% on a year-over-year basis versus 2.9% in December, a Durable Orders report that featured a solid increase in business investment in January (+0.9%), and an uptick in job openings (6.946 million) from a level not seen since December 2020.

While the PCE Price Index showed a modest decline in the year-over-year level, the market is operating under the assumption that upcoming months will likely run hotter due to the surge in oil prices. 

Today's intraday retreat underscores the market's vulnerability to rising energy prices as the war in Iran continues, pressuring both stocks and Treasury yields as the market's rate cut expectations diminish even further. 

U.S. Treasuries of most tenors tried to bounce on Friday, but the early uptick eventually gave way to continued selling that left the complex deep in the red for the week. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.73% (+17 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.29% (+16 basis points this week). 

Reviewing today's data:

• Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) from the advance estimate of 1.4%. The GDP Price Deflator was revised to 3.8% from 3.6% in the advance estimate.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that growth decelerated notably in Q4 while the Price Deflator was revised higher, which is a disappointing combination.
• Personal Income increased 0.4% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising 0.3% in December. Personal spending was also up 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.4% increase in December. The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%). On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index increased 2.8% versus 2.9% in December, and the core PCE Price Index increased 3.1%, versus 3.0% in December.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, edged up in January, which presents a headwind to rate cut expectations.
• Durable goods orders were flat month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.7%). Excluding transportation, durable goods orders rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) after increasing a revised 1.3% (from 0.9%) in December.
• The key takeaway from the report is that the flat headline reading masked a solid 0.9% increase in nondefense capital goods orders, which is a proxy for business investment.
• The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March fell to 55.5 (Briefing.com consensus 55.7) from the final reading of 56.6 for February. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 57.0.
• The key takeaway from the report is that roughly half of the interviews were conducted before military action in Iran, which spurred a rally in energy prices. Therefore, the Consumer Sentiment Index is likely to be revised lower in the final reading for March.
• The January Job Openings and Labor Turnover (JOLTS) report saw 6.946 million job openings, up from an upwardly revised 6.550 (from 6.542 million).