Weekly Wrap

The stock market had a strong week of trading in which a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, positive earnings reports, better-than-expected economic data, and some rate cut hopes culminated in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eclipsing and finishing with record highs.

Geopolitical headlines stirred the markets to open the week following news that the U.S. destroyed three Iranian nuclear facilities on Sunday; but reports that Qatar was notified by Iran preemptively of a counterstrike on a U.S. airbase in the region garnered optimism from the market that a resolution to the conflict was ahead. President Trump announced a ceasefire between the two nations that was initially violated but has since held.

Tuesday marked the first day of Fed Chair Powell’s semiannual monetary policy report before Congress. Mr. Powell reiterated his wait-and-see approach to a rate cut, but conceded that many paths are possible, one of which is that inflation could be cooler than expected, which would suggest the Fed could cut sooner.

The response from the market to the Fed Chair's testimony was optimistic, especially given that his comments followed comments on Monday from Fed Governor Bowman who said she could support a rate cut in July if inflation pressures remain contained. Hopes of an easier monetary policy increased further on Thursday when The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump is considering naming Fed Chair Powell’s replacement for when his terms ends in May 2026 by September or October, if not sooner.

Mega-cap stocks paced the market’s gains this week, evidenced by a 4.7% jump in the Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK). The impact of the mega-cap stocks also manifested itself in the outperformance of the communication services (+6.2%), information technology (+4.7%), and consumer discretionary (+4.4%) sectors, all of which house mega-cap components. The strong performance of the tech sector was bolstered by an impressive earnings report and outlook from Micron (MU).

Micron's report translated into more gains for the white-hot semiconductor group. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 6.4% this week, leaving it up 29.9% for the second quarter. NVIDIA (NVDA) has been a key player in that move and was a key story stock throughout the week as it broke out to a new all-time high and stole the title of being the largest company in the S&P 500 by market capitalization.

The mega-cap stocks may have been the leaders this week, but there was broad-based support that featured fine performances from the small-cap and mid-cap spaces, and from value stocks as well as growth stocks.

The energy sector (-3.5%) was the worst performing sector this week. Oil prices dropped approximately 12% to $65.07 per barrel, as the Israel-Iran ceasefire assuaged concerns about potential supply disruptions in the Middle East. The real estate sector (-0.8%) also underperformed, trading in the shadow of some relatively weak existing and new home sales data.

Those reports were part of an economic calendar that featured a decline in consumer confidence in June, a surge in durable goods orders in May, a dip in weekly initial jobless claims, a downward revision to Q1 GDP, and a decline in real personal spending and an uptick in the year-over-year rates for the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index in May.

The decline in real personal spending didn't stop the consumer discretionary sector from advancing on Friday, as it found support in the 15% gain in Dow component Nike (NKE) following its earnings report and outlook. Earlier in the week, the sector was also bolstered by an encouraging earnings report and outlook from cruise line operator Carnival (CCL).

Friday's session also featured some added volatility, with President Trump announcing that trade talks with Canada have been terminated due to its 400% tariff rate on dairy products and digital services tax. The president added that the U.S. will let Canada know the tariff it will be paying to do business with the U.S. Stocks sold off on that news, but true to form, sprung back on buy-the-dip interest.

Separately, there was plenty of reporting throughout the week on the Senate's negotiations over the "One Big, Beautiful Bill." The Senate, reportedly, has an aim to hold a vote on the bill this weekend, and Treasury Secretary Bessent told CNBC that he thinks there is a very good chance of the bill making it to the president's desk by July 4.

Monday:

The stock market saw some roller-coaster action today that followed the track of developments related to the Israel-Iran conflict, which was elevated over the weekend when the U.S. destroyed three nuclear sites in Iran.

The U.S.-led strikes created some nervous energy in the capital markets, but they didn't create much fear. That was clear to see at today's open, when stocks moved higher and oil prices moved lower. They did so, driven by a sense that the conflict will be contained and that there won't be any major disruption to oil supplies coming out of the Middle East.

The early gains faded, though, with the S&P 500 running into resistance at the 6,000 level, and as news reports indicated Iran was preparing a missile strike on a U.S. base in Qatar. The latter report was accurate, but subsequent reports that Iran notified officials beforehand to limit any casualties, that the missiles were intercepted by Qatar's air defense system, and that there were no casualties or deaths triggered a relief trade that carried the indices to new session highs and the S&P 500 back above 6,000.

That relief was also evident in the oil market. WTI crude futures fell 7.0% today to $68.63/bbl. That move undercut the energy sector (-2.5%), which was the only S&P 500 sector to close in red figures. Gains for the remaining 10 sectors ranged from 0.1% (health care) to 1.8% (consumer discretionary), but eight sectors were up at least 1.0%.

The consumer discretionary sector was steered by Tesla (TSLA 348.71, +26.55, +8.24%), which surged after rolling out its robotaxi service in Austin, TX. Tesla also spearheaded a 1.3% gain in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth Index Fund (MGK 352.79, +4.62, +1.33%).

The rate-sensitive real estate (+1.5%), utilities (+1.3%), and financials (+1.2%) sectors were relative strength leaders today, benefitting from a drop in Treasury yields that was helped by safe-haven flows and burgeoning hope the Fed could cut rates at its July FOMC meeting.

Fed Governor Bowman (FOMC voter) said she could support a rate cut at the July meeting if inflation pressures remain contained. Her view followed on the heels of Fed Governor Waller (FOMC voter) saying on Friday that he thinks the Fed could cut rates at its July meeting.

The 2-yr note yield fell eight basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-yr note yield dropped six basis points to 4.32%. Separately, the fed funds futures market increased the probability of a 25-basis point cut at the July meeting to 22.7% from 14.5% on Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

These viewpoints will add some intrigue to Fed Chair Powell's semiannual monetary policy report, which he will deliver Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee. Undoubtedly, he will be pressed to explain why the Fed, based on comments from his recent press conference, isn't inclined to cut rates at the July meeting.

Reviewing today's data:

• Flash June S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (Actual 52.0; prior 52.0) and flash June S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (Actual 53.1; prior 53.7)
• Existing home sales increased 0.8% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.03 million (Briefing.com consensus 3.94 million) from an unrevised 4.00 million in April. Sales were down 0.7% from the same period a year ago.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the inventory of existing homes for sale is rising, yet overall demand remains subdued because of affordability constraints stemming from high prices and high mortgage rates.

Tuesday:

The stock market traded with a positive bias throughout today's session, driven by the following catalysts:

• President Trump's announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
• A continued drop in oil prices. WTI crude futures, which topped $78.00/bbl yesterday, fell another 6.1% today to $64.46/bbl.
• A drop in Treasury yields following a consumer confidence report for June that was weaker than expected and showed a drop in average 12-month inflation expectations.
  • The 2-yr note yield settled down two basis points at 3.81%, and the 10-yr note yield settled down two basis points at 4.30%.
• An encouraging full-year outlook from cruise line operator Carnival (CCL 25.70, +1.66, +6.88%).
• A drive by Senate leadership to get the reconciliation bill passed and on the president's desk to sign by July 4.

Separately, Fed Chair Powell appeared before the House Financial Services Committee to deliver his semiannual monetary policy report. He expressed his belief that tariff increases will likely push up prices this year and impact economic activity but also showed an open mind on future policy action. The Fed Chair conceded that many paths are possible, one of which is that inflation could be cooler than expected, which would suggest the Fed could cut sooner.

Mr. Powell has inferred as much in the past, but his even-keeled demeanor and open-mindedness today provided some added comfort food for a market already feeling a good bit of relief that the Israel-Iran conflict has de-escalated.

There was broad-based buying interest that took the S&P 500 as high as 6,101.76 shortly before today's close. The mega-cap stocks and semiconductor stocks steered that move, but the prevalent bullish bias also manifested itself in the outperformance of high-beta stocks and small-cap stocks, which are one in the same in some instances.

The information technology sector (+1.6%), underpinned by some hefty gains in its semiconductor components, including NVIDIA (NVDA 147.82, +3.65, +2.53%), paced today's advance, along with the financials (+1.5%), communication services (+1.4%), and health care (+1.2%) sectors. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index surged 3.8%, leaving it up 27.4% for the quarter.

The energy sector (-1.5%), which fell in sympathy with oil prices, and the defensive-oriented consumer staples sector (-0.03%) were the only sectors to lose ground.

Advancers led decliners by a nearly 3-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 3-to-1 margin at Nasdaq. Trading volume was above average at the NYSE but below average at the Nasdaq.

Reviewing today's data:

• The Q1 Current Account Deficit widened to $450.2 billion from a downwardly revised $312.0 billion (from -$303.9 billion) in the fourth quarter.
• April FHFA Housing Price Index (Actual -0.4%; Briefing.com consensus 0.0%; prior revised to 0.0% from -0.1%).
• April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (Actual 3.4%; Briefing.com consensus 4.1%; prior 4.1%)
• The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slumped to 93.0 in June (Briefing.com consensus 99.0) from an upwardly revised 98.4 (from 98.0) in May. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 97.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumers were less positive about business conditions and job availability, which is a perception that could lead to reduced discretionary spending activity.

Wednesday:

The S&P 500 started today's session 0.9% from its all-time high, and after six-and-a-half hours of trading, that's where it remained. There was no real push today to hit a new record, as most stocks fell prone to some profit-taking interest. Nonetheless, because a handful of key stocks did not, the market cap-weighted S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite stood their ground.

That would include NVIDIA (NVDA 154.31, +6.41, +4.33%), Alphabet (GOOG 171.49, +3.75, +2.24%), Apple (AAPL 201.56, +1.26, +0.63%), and Microsoft (MSFT 492.27, +2.16, +0.44%). Collectively, those four stocks have a market cap of approximately $12.2 trillion, which was weighty enough at the index level to offset the loss in FedEx (FDX 222.00, -7.51, -3.27%), which has a market cap of just $55 billion, following its earnings report and disappointing outlook.

It was even enough to cancel out the weakness in Tesla (TSLA 327.55, -12.92, -3.79%), which dropped on a report that its European car sales declined 27.9% yr/yr in May. Market breadth, though, told the real story of today's trade. Decliners led advancers by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a 7-to-4 margin at the Nasdaq.

The Russell 2000 was down 1.2%; the S&P Midcap 400 was down 0.8%; the equal-weighted S&P 500 was down 0.7%; and eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors finished lower with losses ranging from 0.4% (financials) to 2.5% (real estate). Today's session was, more or less, a day of attrition, but it still ended with the Nasdaq 100 extending its reach into record territory.

It did so on the leadership of the aforementioned mega-cap stocks, which propped up the information technology (+1.2%) and communication services (+0.5%) sectors. The health care sector (+0.1%) was the only other sector to record a gain. Separately, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 1.0%, leaving it up 28.6% for the quarter.

There weren't a lot of "new" news drivers to jumpstart the market. Fed Chair Powell didn't say anything consequential on the rate cut front before the Senate Banking Committee today, NATO confirmed its commitment to a 5% defense spending target, and things were relatively quiet on the Israel-Iran front.

There was news in the Fed's proposal to lower the supplemental leverage ratio for GSIBs, as had been speculated. That news lent support to the Treasury market, which had been digesting a much weaker-than-expected new home sales report for May and a $70 billion 5-yr note auction that was met with okay, but not strong, demand.

The 2-yr note yield settled the session down three basis points at 3.78%, while the 10-yr note yield dropped one basis point to 4.29% after skimming 4.33% earlier in the day.

Reviewing today's data:

• New home sales declined 13.7% month-over-month in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 623,000 units (Briefing.com consensus 700,000) from a downwardly revised 722,000 (from 743,000) in April. That was the weakest pace of sales since October 2024. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 6.3%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there is an ample supply of new homes for sale, yet overall sales were weak in May, with high prices and high mortgage rates crimping demand.
• MBA Mortgage Applications Index +1.1% wk/wk, with refinance applications up 3% and purchase applications down 0.4%.

Thursday:

It was a much better-looking market today than yesterday. Yesterday's market wasn't "bad" in terms of returns, but it wasn't so great in terms of participation. Today was a different story. The returns looked even better, and the participation was broad-based.

Advancers led decliners by a better than 4-to-1 margin at the NYSE and by a better than 2-to-1 margin at the Nasdaq.

An encouraging earnings report and outlook from Micron (MU 126.00, -1.25, -0.98%), which was up 107% from its April 7 low going into the report, provided the jumpstart, along with hopes of easier monetary policy that were stirred by a Wall Street Journal report indicating the president is thinking about naming the replacement for when Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026 by September or October, if not sooner. The 2-yr note yield dropped six basis points to 3.72%, and the 10-yr note yield fell four basis points to 4.25%.

A strong durable goods orders report for May and a comforting initial jobless claims report for the week ending June 21 lent some added support with their positive growth takeaways, overshadowing the downward revision to the dated Q1 GDP report.

The communication services sector (+1.8%) was today's best-performing sector, but the cyclical energy (+1.5%), consumer discretionary (+1.2%), industrials (+1.1%), and materials (+1.1%) sectors outperformed in today's session, which was subsidized by continued advances in the mega-cap stocks.

Separately, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, paced by gains in Marvell (MRVL 79.97, +4.04, +5.32%) and Broadcom (AVGO 270.17, +5.52, +2.09%), rose 0.9%, bringing its quarterly gain to 29.8%. NVIDIA (NVDA 155.02, +0.71, +0.46%) also contributed to today's move.

While the mega-cap cohort did just fine today, it was the small-cap and mid-cap stocks that shined. The Russell 2000 finished up 1.7%, while the S&P Midcap 400 Index increased 1.3%.

The S&P 500, which needed a move above 6,147.43 to set a new all-time high, came within a whisker of doing so, hitting an intraday high of 6,146.52. It also flirted with a record closing high but fell just short in that regard, too.

Reviewing today's data:

• Durable goods orders surged 16.4% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus 6.6%) on a 230.8% increase in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%).
  • The key takeaway, however, is that new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- increased 1.7% on the heels of a 1.4% decline in April, reflecting a strong rebound after the reciprocal tariff pause announcement.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 decreased by 10,000 to 236,000 (Briefing.com consensus 247,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 14 increased by 37,000 to 1.974 million, which is the highest level since November 6, 2021.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims -- a leading indicator -- remain entrenched at fairly low levels that are not associated with a recession or even a significant slowdown for that matter, but to be fair, continuing jobless claims are elevated and do point to some softening in the labor market. Businesses may not be laying off a lot of employees, but it has gotten more challenging to find a new job after losing a job.
• The third estimate for Q1 GDP featured a downward revision to -0.5% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%) from the second estimate of -0.2% that was driven by downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports. The GDP Price Deflator increased to 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%) from the second estimate of 3.7%.
  • The key takeaway is that this report is very much "dated," given that we are just a few days away from the end of the second quarter, so it shouldn't have much cachet as a mover for a market that has been cheered since early April by the arrival of hard economic data that has quieted recession concerns.
• The Advance International Trade in Goods deficit widened to $96.6 billion in May from -$87.0 billion in April, with exports dropping more than imports. Adv. Retail Inventories increased 0.3% after being unchanged in April, and Adv. Wholesale Inventories fell 0.3% after a 0.1% increase in April.
• May Pending Home Sales +1.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior -6.3%).

Friday:

The S&P 500 hit a record high today, and it also achieved a record closing high. The bulls found more calls to action early following a report that the U.S. and China had confirmed their trade framework agreement that should increase rare earth exports from China and relax restrictions on exports of technology products to China and that the U.S. could be on the cusp of announcing 10 trade deals.

That news preceded a personal income and spending report for May that was short on both income and spending and long on inflation, with both the PCE Price Index and core-PCE Price Index ticking higher on a year-over-year basis. Notwithstanding a bit of stagflation aura in that combination, the market looked past the report and traded higher, riding trend momentum and a big gain in Dow component NIKE (NKE 72.04, +9.50, +15.19%) following its earnings report.

It also had continued sponsorship from the mega-cap cohort, which pushed the S&P 500 to its session high of 6,187.68, up 0.8%, during the New York lunch hour. That gain disappeared entirely in the afternoon trade after President Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. is terminating its discussions with Canada due to its 400% tariff on dairy products and digital services tax. He then added that, "We will let Canada know the tariff that they will be paying to do business with the United States of America."

This update triggered some broad-based selling, ostensibly because of concerns about tariff inflation and the specter of other countries facing higher tariff rates when the pause on reciprocal tariff rates expires July 9. The Treasury market seemed to reflect those concerns, as the inflation-sensitive 10-yr note saw its yield move from 4.24% to 4.29%.

True to form, though, the stock market regrouped and spent the final hour of trading riding a wave of buy-the-dip interest that took the S&P 500 from 6,132.35 to its closing level of 6,173.07, which now stands as the new record closing high.

Just as most stocks were part of the selloff, most stocks were part of the closing rebound effort. Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed the day higher, led by the consumer discretionary (+1.8%), communication services (+1.5%), and industrials (+1.0%) sectors. The only sectors to close lower were health care (-0.2%) and energy (-0.5%).

Today's session transpired against a backdrop of negotiations in the Senate over the "One Big, Beautiful Bill." Bloomberg reported that Senate Republicans reached a deal to raise the SALT cap to $40,000 for a five-year period, but it was also noted that it is unclear if enough House GOP members will accept this deal. CNBC reported separately that the Senate is hoping to vote on the bill this weekend, while Treasury Secretary Bessent said in a CNBC interview that there is a very good chance of the bill making it to the president's desk by July 4.

Reviewing today's data:

• Personal income declined 0.4% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus +0.4%) following a downwardly revised 0.7% increase (from 0.8%) in April. Personal spending declined 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus +0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in April. Real personal spending declined 0.3%, which will be a drag on Q2 GDP forecasts. The PCE Price Index increased 0.1% month-over-month, as expected, but the core-PCE Price Index jumped 0.2% month-over-month, which was higher than expected (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%). Those moves left the PCE Price Index up 2.3% year-over-year, versus 2.2% in April, and the core-PCE Price Index up 2.7% year-over-year, versus 2.6% in April.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it has a stagflation aura about it, meaning it is a poor report for the growth outlook and a poor report for the inflation trend. That leaves the Fed between a rock and a hard policy place, yet given the Fed's attention to inflation concerns at this juncture, it seems like a report that will keep the Fed reluctant to cut rates at its July FOMC meeting.
• The final University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment for June edged up to 60.7 (Briefing.com consensus 60.5) from the preliminary reading of 60.5. The final reading for May was 52.2. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 68.2.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the June survey showed overall improvement in current sentiment, aided by an improved view of personal finances, business conditions, and the inflation outlook that followed the pause on the reciprocal tariff rates (which is due to expire July 9) and the ensuing stock market rally.