Weekly Wrap

The stock market moved lower again this week, with the S&P 500 (-2.1%) and Nasdaq Composite (-3.2%) pacing the decline, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) held up relatively better. Beneath the surface, however, the action told a more nuanced story—one defined by sharp rotations, mega-cap weakness, and continued sensitivity to oil-driven geopolitical developments.

The week began on a strong note, as a sharp pullback in oil prices—driven by hopes of a potential pause in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran—sparked a broad risk-on rally. All eleven sectors advanced on Monday, and the S&P 500 and DJIA briefly reclaimed their 200-day moving averages. However, that optimism proved fleeting, as conflicting reports around negotiations quickly reintroduced uncertainty.

From there, markets struggled to gain traction. Oil resumed its volatile swings, and Treasury yields moved higher overall, creating a difficult backdrop for equities—particularly large-cap growth stocks. While there were intermittent bouts of strength tied to dips in oil prices, each rebound attempt was capped near key technical resistance levels.

A key theme throughout the week was the pronounced divergence between mega-cap stocks and the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite underperformed sharply, weighed down by significant losses in the communication services (-7.2%) and information technology (-3.5%) sectors. Weakness in mega-cap names—particularly across software and internet platforms—was a persistent drag, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF falling 4.1% and the iShares Expanded Tech-Software ETF dropping 7.4%.

In contrast, smaller-cap stocks showed relative resilience for much of the week, with the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.4%) managing gains. Additionally, more commodity-linked areas outperformed, highlighting a clear rotation away from growth.

The energy sector (+6.2%) led all gainers as oil prices ultimately pushed back toward the $100 per barrel mark by week’s end, despite early volatility. The materials sector (+4.2%) also posted strong gains, supported by strength in chemicals and metals amid ongoing supply concerns tied to Middle East tensions.

Defensive sectors saw steady inflows as well, with utilities (+2.9%) and consumer staples (+1.2%) outperforming, particularly during the latter part of the week as risk sentiment deteriorated.

By Thursday and Friday, selling pressure intensified. Rising oil prices, climbing Treasury yields, and escalating geopolitical rhetoric combined to drive broad-based losses. Mega-cap stocks led the decline, with all of the “Magnificent Seven” finishing lower on Friday, while continued weakness in software and semiconductor stocks compounded the downside.

Ultimately, this week reinforced a market increasingly shaped by external macro forces—namely, oil prices and geopolitical developments. While there were signs of resilience beneath the surface earlier in the week, persistent weakness in mega-cap stocks and repeated failures at key technical levels left the broader market vulnerable.

As long as oil remains volatile and geopolitical uncertainty persists, the path forward for equities is likely to remain uneven, with sector rotation and macro sensitivity continuing to define price action.

Monday:

The stock market saw broad gains today in reaction to developments on the geopolitical front, helping the S&P 500 (+1.2%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.4%), and DJIA (+1.4%) rise from their worst levels of the year. 

Equity futures reversed their overnight losses after President Trump said on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran have engaged in productive discussions to end all hostilities and that strikes on Iranian energy targets will be paused for five days to allow for negotiations. Oil prices retreated sharply, and the major averages opened to gains that eventually saw the S&P 500 and DJIA briefly reclaim their 200-day moving averages. 

The major averages could not sustain all of their early gains, which saw them close below their respective 200-day moving averages. Enthusiasm was somewhat tempered by multiple reports that Iranian officials denied any negotiations with the U.S., leaving the market to question the validity of an off-ramp to the conflict. 

Still, President Trump's desire to negotiate a deal reflects a clear shift in rhetoric, which helped underpin today's risk-on move and ease some near-term concerns about further escalation in the conflict, even as uncertainty around the situation remains elevated.

All eleven S&P 500 sectors finished at or above their flatlines. The health care sector (flat) was the only sector that failed to secure a gain, as today's improvement in risk sentiment saw more defensive pockets of the market lag, with the consumer staples sector (+0.4%) logging a modest gain. 

Even the energy sector (+1.1%) captured a nice gain despite crude oil futures settling today's session $9.93 lower (-10.1%) at $88.19 per barrel.

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector (+2.5%) notched the widest gain, with cruise lines such as Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 20.13, +1.18, +6.23%) among the outperformers amid the falling price of oil. 

Tesla (TSLA 380.83, +12.87, +3.50%) was a "magnificent seven" standout in a solid day for mega-cap stocks, with the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finishing 1.5% higher. 

Elsewhere, the top-weighted information technology sector (+1.5%) also outperformed today. Strength across Palantir Technologies (PLTR 160.90, +10.22, +6.78%) and other software names pushed the iShares GS Software ETF 1.8% higher. 

Semiconductor names surged out of the gate, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index trading more than 3.0% higher this morning. The index finished with a more modest 1.3% gain as weakness across Micron (MU 404.35, -18.55, -4.39%) and other memory storage names tempered gains. 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+2.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+1.9%) outperformed as the uptick in risk sentiment favored growth stocks today. 

All told, today's session reflected a market eager to respond to any signs of de-escalation, with the sharp pullback in oil prices fueling a broad risk-on move. Still, the inability to hold key technical levels highlights lingering uncertainty, leaving investors sensitive to further geopolitical headlines in the near term.

U.S. Treasuries began the week with gains across the curve, pressuring yields from Q1 highs, amid some improvement in geopolitical sentiment. The 2-year note yield settled down six basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-year note yield settled down six basis points to 4.33%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• January Construction Spending -0.3% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%); Prior was revised to 0.8% from 0.3%
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the weakness was paced by a decline in private residential spending, which is believed to be a knock-on effect of labor constraints and higher interest rates.

Tuesday:

The S&P 500 (-0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.8%), and DJIA (-0.2%) finished lower as investors weighed geopolitical developments, rising yields, and a rebound in oil prices. Despite solid participation across the broader market that helped the major averages recover much of their early losses, weakness in mega-cap names prevented a sustained move above flatline levels.

Today's developments in the Middle East offered little clarity on how close an off-ramp to the Iran conflict may be. Early headlines focused on Iran's continued denial of involvement in ceasefire negotiations with the U.S., alongside reports of neighboring Gulf states supporting stricter measures against Tehran. However, Axios reported that the U.S. has at least made contact with Iran through mediators and is awaiting a response on peace talks. President Trump also reiterated to reporters that both the U.S. and Iran are eager to strike a deal. 

Oil rebounded amid the ongoing uncertainty after retreating 10% in yesterday's session, settling today's session $4.10 higher (+4.7%) at $92.29 per barrel. The energy sector (+2.1%) finished as the top-performing S&P 500 sector. 

After recovering from relatively broad opening losses, the market ultimately finished mixed despite leaning higher for most of the session. 

The materials sector (+1.7%) was another outperformer, with chemical names leading the advance. Fertilizer names such as CF Industries (CF 126.92, +6.74, +5.61%) and Mosaic (MOS 25.22, +1.14, +4.73%) were among some of the top performers as hostilities near the Strait of Hormuz continue to drive volatility. 

Elsewhere, the utilities sector (+0.7%) also posted a nice gain. Other defensive sectors, such as the consumer staples sector (+0.1%), sported gains wider than 1.0% today, though they ceded most of their strength in the afternoon. Estee Lauder (EL 71.47, -7.82, -9.86%) was one of the worst-performing S&P 500 names after the company confirmed it is in discussions about a potential business combination with Spain's Puig. 

Meanwhile, the communication services sector (-2.5%) was a laggard for the entirety of today's session. It was a tough session for mega-cap stocks, and Alphabet (GOOG 289.20, -9.82, -3.28%) bore the brunt of the weakness, with Meta Platforms (META 592.92, -11.14, -1.84%) also finishing lower. 

The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF finished 1.3% lower, which contributed to the underperformance of the market-weighted S&P 500 (-0.4%) relative to the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+0.1%). 

Microsoft (MSFT 372.74, -10.26, -2.68%) was another "Magnificent Seven" laggard as software names came under renewed pressure today. The iShares GS Software ETF shed 4.2%, and the broader information technology sector finished 0.7% lower. 

Losses were somewhat pared by a 1.3% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index and strong performances across hardware and electrical component manufacturers such as Lumentum (LITE 801.99, +73.04, +10.02%), Corning (GLW 142.09, +11.12, +8.49%), and Dell (DELL 176.98, +12.39, +7.53%). 

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.8%) outperformed the major averages.

Overall, the market showed some resilience despite higher oil prices and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, with strength outside mega-cap tech helping to offset losses. Still, the major averages remain capped below their 200-day moving averages, reflecting a cautious tone as the Iran situation continues to evolve.

U.S. Treasuries gave back Monday's gains during a Tuesday reversal that also produced fresh 2026 intraday highs for yields across all tenors. The U.S. Treasury started this week's note auction slate with a poor 2-year note offering that tailed by nearly two basis points. The 2-year note yield settled up 10 basis points to 3.93% and the 10-year note yield settled up six basis points to 4.39%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Q4 Productivity - Revised 1.8% (Briefing.com consensus 2.5%); Prior revised to 4.9% from 2.8%, Q4 Unit Labor Costs - Revised 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus 3.1%); Prior revised to -1.9% from 2.8%
  • The key takeaway from the report is the dichotomy of lower productivity and higher unit labor costs, the latter of which will contribute to the Fed's reticence to cut rates soon (even though this is a dated report).
• March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Prelim 52.4; Prior 51.6
• March S&P Global U.S. Services PMI - Prelim 51.1; Prior 51.7

Wednesday:

The stock market posted broad gains today amid lingering optimism surrounding reports of a U.S. peace proposal to Iran, though stocks finished off their best levels as Iranian officials continued to deny that negotiations are taking place. The S&P 500 (+0.5%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.8%), and DJIA (+0.7%) finished with over half of their gains from session highs, though even at their best levels, their 200-day moving averages acted as resistance. 

Despite Iranian officials denying claims that talks are occurring between the U.S. and Iran, the market was supported by a retreat in oil prices, with crude oil futures settling today's session $1.96 lower (-2.1%) at $90.33 per barrel after moving below the $87 per barrel mark earlier in the session. 

The energy sector (-0.5%) was the only S&P 500 sector to finish lower (the real estate sector finished flat). Despite the major averages closing below their best levels of the session, strength remained broad, with nine S&P 500 sectors finishing higher. 

The materials sector (+2.0%) led the advance, supported by broad strength and another solid day from chemical names. Newmont Corporation (NEM 101.54, +2.52, +2.54%) also outperformed amid a rebound in precious metal prices, with gold futures settling $150.30 higher (+3.4%) at $4,552.30 per ounce. 

A solid rebound effort from mega-cap stocks helped lead the consumer discretionary sector (+1.2%) to a higher finish, with Amazon (AMZN 211.71, +4.47, +2.16%) leading the "magnificent seven" today. 

Elsewhere in the sector, Carvana (CVNA 308.58, +7.61, +2.53%) posted a nice gain as Treasury yields retreated today, while cruise lines outperformed amid the retreat in oil prices. 

NVIDIA (NVDA 178.71, +3.51, +2.00%) was another mega-cap standout, and strength across chipmakers helped the top-weighted information technology sector (+0.6%) chart a nice gain. Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 220.27, +14.90, +7.26%) and Intel (INTC 47.18, +3.12, +7.08%) finished even higher, boosting the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+1.2%). Gains were somewhat tempered by losses across memory storage names such as Sandisk (SNDK 677.86, -24.62, -3.50%) and Micron (MU 382.09, -13.44, -3.40%) after Google Research introduced TurboQuant, which it claims to dramatically reduce AI memory requirements.

The technology sector also saw a strong continuation of yesterday's rally across hardware names such as Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE 25.80, +1.90, +7.93%). 

Notably, the communication services sector (+0.2%) finished only slightly higher despite housing several mega-cap components of its own. Alphabet (GOOG 289.59, +0.39, +0.13%) and Meta Platforms (META 594.89, +1.97, +0.33%) both ceded nearly all of their early gains after a jury found the companies liable in a landmark social media addiction trial over platform design, according to Bloomberg.

Elsewhere, the health care sector (+1.0%) outperformed due to solid gains across biotechnology and pharmaceutical names that sent the iShares Nasdaq Biotech ETF 2.5% higher. 

Ultimately, stocks benefited from broad buying interest after a mostly lower showing yesterday and a modest retreat in oil prices, but even at session highs, the major averages remained pinned below their 200-day moving averages. Additionally, today's geopolitical headlines did little to clarify the state of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, leaving the market vulnerable to volatility as investors continue to react to incoming headlines and shifts in oil prices.

U.S. Treasuries enjoyed a solid midweek bounce that pressured yields from their highest levels of 2026. Treasuries added to their starting gains in mid-morning trade, staying just below their highs into the close even though today's $70 billion 5-year note auction met weak demand, making for the second disappointing auction in a row ahead of tomorrow's $44 billion 7-year note offering. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.88%, and the 10-year note yield settled down six basis points to 4.33%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.5%; Prior -10.9%
• Q4 Current Account Balance -$190.7 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$242.3 bln); Prior was revised to -$239.1 bln from -$226.4 bln
• February Import Prices 1.3%; Prior was revised to 0.6% from 0.2%
• February Import Prices ex-oil 1.1%; Prior was revised to 0.8% from 0.5%
• February Export Prices 1.5%; Prior 0.6%
• February Export Prices ex-ag. 1.7%; Prior 0.7%

Thursday:

The stock market faced pressure from multiple fronts, including higher oil prices, rising Treasury yields, and pronounced weakness across mega-cap stocks, which saw the S&P 500 (-1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.4%), and DJIA (-1.0%) steadily chart session lows throughout the day.

There was some lingering optimism in the broader market after yesterday's higher finish, which kept the DJIA in positive territory for some of the morning, though a combination of pressures eventually culminated in broad weakness. 

On the geopolitical front, Iran rejected the 15-point peace plan set forth by the U.S., and while the current state of negotiations remains far from transparent, rhetoric on both sides took a more hostile tone today. Iran continued to strike energy infrastructure targets across the region, which has prompted neighboring Gulf states to prepare for military intervention. Additionally, reports circulated that the Pentagon is preparing to send more troops to the Middle East as the potential for a ground conflict escalates. 

Crude oil futures settled today's session $4.10 higher (+4.5%) at $94.43 per barrel, which pushed Treasury yields as inflation concerns mount. 

Unlike the DJIA, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite charted a lower course much earlier in the session, which was largely a product of significant weakness across mega-cap and tech stocks. 

The communication services sector (-3.5%) closed considerably lower as Meta Platforms (META 547.75, -47.14, -7.92%) and Alphabet (GOOG 280.74, -8.85, -3.06%) faced a continuation of yesterday's weakness after a court found the companies liable in a social media addiction case that alleges they specifically target younger users. Bloomberg reported on the case and warned that social media companies could face fallout akin to that of large tobacco companies. 

The top-weighted information technology sector (-2.7%) was another laggard as semiconductor stocks rolled over today. NVIDIA (NVDA 171.24, -7.44, -4.16%) had a tough session, but its losses could almost be described as tame compared to other stocks such as Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 203.77, -16.50, -7.49%) and Micron (MU 355.62, -26.47, -6.93%). The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 4.8% lower, moving it into negative week-to-date territory. 

All told, the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (-2.6%) moved considerably lower, and the market-weighted S&P 500 (-1.7%) underperformed the S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (-1.0%). 

The consumer discretionary sector (-1.9%) also faced broad weakness and poor mega-cap leadership, while the industrials sector (-2.3%) moved lower as industrial machinery names such as Lennox Int'l (LII 438.29, -43.39, -9.01%) retreated sharply. 

The energy sector (+1.6%) outperformed amid rising oil prices, with Valero Energy (VLO 248.14, +13.60, +5.80%) a notable standout. 

The real estate sector (+0.2%) captured a more modest gain, while the defensive utilities sector managed to finish flat. 

All told, today's pressures leave the major averages mostly lower entering the final session of the week. Action has been choppy so far as stocks track volatility in oil prices, but the broader trend remains lower as the major averages slip further below their respective 200-day moving averages. Absent clarity on the geopolitical front and stabilization in oil prices and yields, the path of least resistance for stocks appears tilted to the downside. 

U.S. Treasuries continued this week's volatility with a Thursday slide that left yields on the 10-year note and shorter tenors at their highest closing levels of the year. Treasuries reached their worst levels shortly after today's $44 bln 7-yr note auction met weak demand, making for the third consecutive disappointing auction of this week. The 2-year note yield settled up ten basis points to 3.98%, and the 10-year note yield settled up nine basis points to 4.42%. 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 210K (Briefing.com consensus 210K); Prior 205K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.819 mln; Prior was revised to 1.851 mln from 1.857 mln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it is not indicative of a weak labor market, particularly with initial jobless claims—a leading indicator—continuing to run at historically low levels.

Friday:

The stock market charted another considerable retreat today after a similar showing yesterday, with the major averages finishing lower across the board for the week. The S&P 500 (-1.7%), Nasdaq Composite (-2.2%), and DJIA (-1.7%) faced broad pressure that widened throughout the session as oil prices climbed amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty.

Today's session did not give the market any clarity on how negotiations between the U.S. and Iran are progressing, if they are even happening at all. There was, however, a report from The Wall Street Journal that indicated the Pentagon is considering sending an additional 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East.

On the heels of yesterday's reports of neighboring Gulf states preparing for possible military intervention, the market now enters the weekend with a heightened state of anxiety around a potential ground conflict.

Today's climb in oil prices saw WTI crude end the week close to where it started, which is notable considering Monday saw a double-digit pullback. Crude oil futures settled today's session $5.08 higher (+5.4%) at $99.51 per barrel. The energy sector (+1.9%) was a standout, finishing the week with a 6.3% gain.

There were also some rotational gains realized in the defensive consumer staples (+0.8%) and utilities (+0.6%) sectors, with a few noteworthy single-stock moves in the mix. Entergy (ETR 109.88, +7.02, +6.82%) was the top-performing S&P 500 component following an expanded agreement with Meta Platforms (META 525.72, -21.82, -3.99%) to support the hyperscale data center in Northeast Louisiana, while Brown-Forman Corporation (BF-B 27.24, +1.50, +5.83%) saw an extension of yesterday's gains after confirming acquisition interest from Pernod-Ricard (PDRDY 47.12, -0.18, -0.38%).

The other eight S&P 500 sectors traded lower, with sharp losses across some of the weightiest sectors stinging the major averages for a second consecutive session.

The consumer discretionary sector (-3.1%) faced the widest loss, with all but two of its components finishing lower. Cruise lines such as Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH 18.49, -1.36, -6.85%) were among the sector's worst performers after Carnival (CCL 24.19, -1.09, -4.31%) topped earnings estimates but issued disappointing guidance in response to the recent surge in fuel prices.

The sector also suffered from poor mega-cap leadership, with Amazon (AMZN 199.34, -8.20, -3.95%) and Tesla (TSLA 361.83, -10.28, -2.76%) both lagging today.

Lingering weakness across mega-cap stocks weighed on the communication services (-2.3%) and information technology (-2.0%) sectors as well. The Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF shed 2.3% today, and all of the "magnificent seven" stocks charted lower finishes.

Meta Platforms (META 525.72, -21.82, -3.99%) was the worst-performer of the group, facing an extension of yesterday's losses after a jury found the company liable in a social media addiction trial.

In the technology sector, losses were particularly acute across software names as Datadog (DDOG 114.48, -9.82, -7.90%) and other packaged software companies were among some of the worst-performing S&P 500 components. The iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) finished 3.6% lower.

Elsewhere, the financials sector logged a similar retreat as all but one of its components traded lower. Citigroup (C 107.32, -5.09, -4.53%) was a laggard across major banking names after Bloomberg reported the company is interested in buying a regional bank, though Citigroup denied the report.

Meanwhile, Coinbase Global (COIN 161.14, -12.24, -7.06%) and Robinhood Markets (HOOD 66.02, -4.33, -6.15%) saw comparable losses as Bitcoin slid 4%.

The market's clear risk-off tone also weighed on smaller-cap stocks, with the Russell 2000 (-1.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-1.6%) faring similarly to the major averages.

The CBOE Volatility Index surged 13.3% to 31.08, suggesting a heightened sense of unease heading into the weekend.

Today's weakness was largely a continuation of recent pressures that stocks have faced since the start of the war in Iran, which has pushed energy prices higher and drastically tempered the macro outlook. The major averages continue to slip further below their respective 200-day moving averages, while the market enters the weekend vulnerable to further geopolitical volatility.

U.S. Treasuries had a mixed showing on Friday, which returned longer and shorter tenors to little changed for the week that saw fresh 2026 highs in yields across the curve. The two-year note yield settled down six basis points (+3 basis points this week), and the 10-year note yield settled up two basis points to 4.44% (+5 basis points this week). 

Reviewing today's data:

• The final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March fell to 53.3 (Briefing.com consensus: 55.5) from the preliminary reading of 55.5. The final reading for February was 56.6. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 57.0.
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it conveyed large drops in sentiment among consumers with middle and higher incomes, who were dealing with rising gas prices and falling stock prices in the wake of the Iran war.