Weekly Wrap

Stocks posted solid gains this week as hopes of a de-escalation in the U.S.-Iran conflict supported sentiment, helping the major averages recover some of March’s losses. The S&P 500 (+3.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+4.4%), and DJIA (+3.0%) all advanced, while smaller-cap benchmarks like the Russell 2000 (+3.3%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.9%) also finished higher.

Sector performance was led by growth-oriented and communication-related areas, with the communication services sector (+6.4%) and information technology sector (+4.6%) outperforming. Financials (+3.6%), real estate (+3.8%), and materials (+3.4%) also posted solid gains, while the energy sector (-5.3%) lagged amid volatile oil prices.

Tech leadership was supported by a rebound in semiconductor stocks, with the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+5.0%) recovering most of Monday’s sharp losses. Mega-cap growth also advanced, reflected in the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF (+4.7%). Some of the week’s gains were likely due to positioning after oversold conditions earlier in the week, as geopolitical developments remained volatile.

Geopolitical developments drove market swings. Early optimism following President Trump’s comments on Iran’s potential concessions lifted markets, while midweek reports of ceasefire discussions fueled a broad rally. Thursday saw renewed volatility as threats of continued military action coincided with sharply higher oil prices, but the major averages ultimately finished the session near flat.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that inflation expectations remain well anchored beyond the short term and emphasized that the Fed’s tools have limited impact on supply shocks, which contributed to a pullback in market-implied rate expectations.

Overall, the market finished the week higher, with gains reflecting a mix of optimism over potential geopolitical progress, relief rallies after oversold conditions, and a rebound in mega-cap and tech names, even as oil prices and uncertainty around Iran keep the market on a cautious footing.

• Nasdaq Composite: +4.4% week-to-date
• S&P 500: +3.4% week-to-date
• Russell 2000: +3.3% week-to-date
• DJIA: +3.0% week-to-date
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.9% week-to-date

Monday:

Stocks opened with broad gains following Friday's sharp sell-off and a relatively quiet weekend on the Iran front. However, the major averages were unable to hold most of those gains amid pronounced weakness in semiconductor stocks and another day of sharply higher oil prices, ultimately leading to a mostly lower finish.

The Nasdaq Composite (-0.7%) lagged for most of the session amid the weakness in tech names, while the S&P 500 (-0.4%) moved lower in the afternoon, and strength in the broader market helped the DJIA (+0.1%) squeak out a modest gain. The smaller-cap Russell 2000 (-1.5%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (-0.8%) moved lower earlier in the session, and finished with wider losses.

Much of the early strength in equities was attributed to a technical bounce in the wake of Friday's sell-off. All eleven S&P 500 sectors traded higher out of the gate, but losses across tech names quickly capped gains at the index level.

The top-weighted information technology sector (-1.5%) was one of the first S&P 500 sectors to move into negative territory as semiconductor stocks saw an extension of recent weakness. The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 4.2% lower as names such as Micron (MU 321.80, -35.42, -9.92%) and Coherent (COHR 219.65, -23.83, -9.79%) were among the worst-performing S&P 500 names today.

It is worth noting that losses in the broader technology sector were somewhat lessened due to a strong showing from software stocks that sent the iShares GS Software ETF (IGV) 1.0% higher. ServiceNow (NOW 104.97, +5.56, +5.59%) was the top-performing S&P 500 component while Palo Alto Networks (PANW 154.35, +7.33, +4.99%) captured a similar gain after disclosing that its CEO purchased approximately $10 million worth of shares late Friday.

The industrials sector (-1.6%) was also a laggard today, while the energy sector (-0.9%) also finished lower despite crude oil futures settling today's session $3.41 higher (+3.4%) at $102.92 per barrel.

There was some early optimism on the geopolitical front after President Trump wrote on Truth Social that Iran has conceded most of the demands in the 15-point peace proposal that the U.S. set forth, though he did not provide details. Additionally, the same post included threats to destroy Iran's energy infrastructure if a deal is not struck soon. A lack of clarity and climbing oil prices kept the market's enthusiasm in check, while reports circulated late in the session that Israel's Air Force completed a wave of attacks on infrastructure sites in Tehran, suggesting a resolution remains distant.

However, the market received some encouraging news today regarding the Fed's view of the situation in Iran. Fed Chair Jerome Powell (voting FOMC member) said inflation expectations remain well anchored beyond the short term and noted that the Fed's tools do not have a meaningful impact on supply shocks. This commentary had a notable impact on market-implied rate expectations, with the probability of a rate hike later this year falling to around 5% from over 20% on Friday, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Corporate news flow was on the lighter side today, though there were a few notable moves. Sysco (SYY 69.30, -12.50, -15.28%) was the worst-performing S&P 500 component after agreeing to acquire Jetro Restaurant Depot in a $29.1 billion deal.

With tomorrow marking the final trading day of the quarter, positioning dynamics could come into focus. However, the major averages remain firmly below their 200-day moving averages, highlighting a still-challenged technical backdrop as oil prices continue to climb. 

Unlike stocks, U.S. Treasuries began the week with strong gains across the curve, bouncing off their lowest levels of the month ahead of tomorrow's final session of Q1. The 2-year note yield settled down nine basis points to 3.83%, and the 10-year note yield settled down 10 basis points to 4.34%. 

There was no economic data of note. 

Tuesday:

Stocks rallied today as leaders from both the U.S. and Iran signaled a willingness to end the ongoing conflict that has sent energy prices soaring and stocks lower over the past month.

In the final session of March, the S&P 500 (+2.9%), Nasdaq Composite (+3.8%), and DJIA (+2.5%) took back a considerable chunk of previous weakness, ultimately ending March with losses ranging from 4.8% to 5.5%. The month-to-date figure is notable given that the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes against Iran on February 28, which was a Saturday, meaning the war in Iran has been at the forefront of the market's focus since the first opening bell of March.

Equity futures pointed to a higher opening this morning after The Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump told aides he is willing to end U.S. military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, as reopening it could extend the conflict beyond the 4- to 6-week timeline.

Out of the gate, stocks climbed in broad fashion, with solid mega-cap leadership supporting growth at the index level, unlike yesterday's session. Gains across the major averages doubled shortly after midday following a CNBC report that Iranian state media said the country's president spoke by phone with the European Council. Iran is reportedly "prepared to end the war" with guarantees against further attacks, a call that has been confirmed by the European Council President.

In the wake of the reports, oil prices retreated modestly after a flattish morning, ultimately settling $1.77 lower (-1.7%) at $101.15 per barrel.

The energy sector (-1.1%) was a laggard as a result, while the utilities (-0.1%) and consumer staples (flat) sectors also went overlooked as the geopolitical optimism translated into a risk-on rally.

Tech and other growth-oriented sectors posted some of the strongest gains, with communication services (+4.4%) leading the sector leaderboard. Meta Platforms (META 572.13, +35.75, +6.67%) and Alphabet (GOOG 286.90, +13.76, +5.04%) extended their recent rebounds from last week's lows that followed news that the companies were found liable in a social media addiction trial.

The information technology sector (+4.2%) posted a similar gain as NVIDIA (NVDA 174.44, +9.28, +5.62%) and other semiconductor stocks rebounded nicely after a weak showing yesterday. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (+6.2%) reclaimed all of yesterday's losses and then some, and onsemi (ON 61.92, +6.26, +11.25%) was one of the best-performing S&P 500 components.

Other outperformers included airlines and cruise lines such as United Airlines (UAL 92.07, +6.86, +8.05%) and Carnival (CCL 25.88, +1.92, +8.01%) as oil prices stabilized today, while stocks tied to bitcoin and gold also mounted solid gains.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+3.4%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.8%) finished with gains similar to those across the major averages.

All told, today's session marked a meaningful uptick in sentiment as talks of a ceasefire in the war in Iran gained traction, with Tehran now signaling a willingness to end the conflict under certain conditions—a notable shift from just days ago, when it had rejected ceasefire proposals outright. The S&P 500 captured its widest single-day gain since last May, a much-needed relief rally after several weeks of downward momentum. However, the situation in Iran has proven to be delicate, and oil remains above the $100 per barrel mark, highlighting that a definitive end to the energy shock is not yet a certainty.

The major averages will enter the first session of the second quarter pinned below their respective 200-day moving averages, though today's rally moved them significantly closer to the key technical level.

U.S. Treasuries ended March on a higher note, continuing Friday's rebound off 2026 lows. The 2-year note yield settled down three basis points to 3.80% (+42 bps in March; +32 bps in Q1), and the 10-year note yield settled down three basis points to 4.31% (+35 bps in March; +14 bps in Q1).

Reviewing today's data:

• January FHFA Housing Price Index 0.1% (Briefing.com consensus 0.0%); Prior was revised to 0.3% from 0.1%
• January S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index 1.6% (Briefing.com consensus 1.3%); Prior was revised to 1.9% from 1.4%
• March Chicago PMI 52.8 (Briefing.com consensus 54.8); Prior 57.7
• March Consumer Confidence 91.8 (Briefing.com consensus 88.0); Prior was revised to 91.0 from 91.2
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the headline numbers don't convey any abject concern among consumers about the Iran war, yet that concern showed up in higher 12-month inflation expectations, which jumped to 6.2% from 5.5% in February, marking the highest level since August 2025.
• February JOLTs - Job Openings 6.882 mln (Briefing.com consensus 6.795 mln); Prior was revised to 7.240 mln from 6.946 mln

Wednesday:

The S&P 500 (+0.7%), Nasdaq Composite (+1.2%), and DJIA (+0.5%) saw a meaningful extension of yesterday's rally as the potential for a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran culminated in another session of broad gains. The DJIA traded above its 200-day moving average (46,698) but failed to close above the key technical level.

Equity futures signaled a higher opening following a Bloomberg report that President Trump told aides that the U.S. will withdraw from the conflict in two to three weeks, even if a deal has not been struck. However, that report was followed by a Truth Social post in which the president threatened continued bombing of Iran's infrastructure if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened.

Today's session progressed in a similar fashion in the sense that it remains unclear exactly where negotiations stand, or how close an off-ramp to the conflict truly is. Reuters reported that Iran denied requesting a ceasefire, while an Israeli report that negotiations are "not progressing in a positive way" saw the major averages give back a considerable chunk of their early gains during the early afternoon hours.

The market now awaits an address from President Trump tonight at 9:00 p.m. ET, in which Politico reported the president will likely announce a victory over Iran and state intentions to wind down military operations, while pressuring NATO allies to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

While the Iran situation continues to drive volatility, stocks steadily climbed from their intraday lows to end the session firmly higher. Oil retreated again today, which added support. Crude oil futures settled today's session $1.01 lower (-1.0%) at $100.14 per barrel, and continued to move lower after the session close.

Unsurprisingly, the energy sector (-3.9%) faced a sharp retreat, with all of its components trading lower.

The consumer staples sector (-0.6%) also finished lower as investors rotated into more growth-oriented holdings, while mixed strength in the financials sector saw it chart a flat finish.

Meanwhile, the broader market finished higher as the other S&P 500 sectors covered enough ground to weather the intraday slide. Mega-cap stocks were a point of strength again today, sending the Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF 1.2% higher.

That helped the communication services sector (+1.6%) finish near the top of the leaderboard again as Alphabet (GOOG 294.90, +8.04, +2.80%) and Meta Platforms (META 579.23, +7.10, +1.24%) continue to rebound from pronounced weakness after a jury found the companies liable in a social-media addiction case last week.

The information technology sector (+1.1%) was another top-mover, with sustained strength across semiconductor names outweighing weakness across software stocks that saw Microsoft (MSFT 369.37, -0.80, -0.22%) finish as the only "magnificent seven" name that failed to chart a gain.

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 2.8% higher, with memory storage names such as Western Digital (WDC 297.73, +27.24, +10.07%) and Micron (MU 367.85, +30.01, +8.88%) among the top-performing S&P 500 components.

Meanwhile, NIKE (NKE 44.63, -8.19, -15.51%) was the index's worst performer after topping earnings estimates, but weak guidance and admission that the company's turnaround efforts are taking longer than expected kept investors from buying the dip. Nike's underperformance did little to weigh down the consumer discretionary sector (+0.9%), which was supported by relatively broad strength and solid mega-cap leadership of its own.

In other corporate news, Eli Lilly (LLY 954.28, +34.51, +3.75%) made a sharp move higher after confirming the FDA approved its new weight-loss drug Foundayo.

Altogether, the stock market started the second quarter on a higher note, especially given the sharp losses that were realized in March. Today's strength was largely driven by geopolitical optimism, though the U.S. and Iran still appear to be far apart on negotiations. Attention now turns to President Trump's address tonight for further clarity on the path forward for U.S. involvement in the conflict and any potential timeline for de-escalation.

As a reminder, tomorrow will be the final session of the week, as the stock market will be closed on Friday for the Good Friday holiday.

U.S. Treasuries endured some volatility to begin April, though the movement unfolded inside a narrow range, leaving the market with slim losses after three days of gains in most tenors. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.80%, and the 10-year note yield settled up one basis point to 4.32%. 

 Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index -10.4%; Prior -10.5%
• March ADP Employment Change 62K (Briefing.com consensus 42K); Prior was revised to 66K from 63K
• February Retail Sales 0.6% (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%); Prior was revised to -0.1% from -0.2%, February Retail Sales, ex-auto 0.5% (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%); Prior 0.0%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it revealed solid spending activity across most kinds of retail businesses. The strength of the report is apt to be diluted, however, by the recognition that it preceded the hefty increase in gasoline prices and the sharp decline in stock prices in March that are expected to keep discretionary spending in check.
• March S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI - Final 52.3; Prior 52.4
• March ISM Manufacturing Index 52.7% (Briefing.com consensus 52.3%); Prior 52.4%
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it conveys an ongoing expansion in manufacturing activity coupled with an ongoing increase in prices for raw materials that works against the notion of the Fed cutting rates soon.
• January Business Inventories -0.1%; Prior was revised to 0.0% from 0.1%

Thursday:

The major averages had a choppy morning as this week's optimism surrounding a potential ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran faded, although the S&P 500 (+0.1%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.2%), and DJIA (-0.1%) rebounded from their opening lows to finish little changed.

The stock market opened to broad losses after President Trump said in a speech last night that the U.S. will continue strikes against Iran if a deal is not reached. Oil prices moved sharply higher in response, with crude oil futures settling today's session $11.34 higher (+11.3%) at $111.48 per barrel.

After opening with losses of 1.0% or more, the major averages rebounded sharply to flatline levels roughly an hour into the session following a Bloomberg report that Iran and Oman are drafting a proposal related to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Following the early geopolitical volatility, stocks had a relatively muted session, with the major averages drifting near their flatlines through the afternoon. Strength was mixed, with six S&P 500 sectors charting gains.

The real estate sector (+1.5%) finished as the best-performing S&P 500 sector as Treasuries stabilized from earlier losses.

Gains elsewhere were modest in comparison, though the relative outperformance of the top-weighted information technology sector (+0.7%) boosted the major averages in the final half hour of the session. The sector opened sharply lower as mega-cap and tech stocks gave back some of their prior strength this morning. Sentiment improved throughout the session, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index (+0.4%) finished modestly higher after opening to considerable losses, with Intel (INTC 50.38, +2.35, +4.89%) a standout.

Ciena (CIEN 447.83, +32.44, +7.81%), Lumentum (LITE 826.88, +62.23, +8.14%), and Coherent (COHR 258.19, +10.39, +4.19%) were the top-performing S&P 500 components today.

Elsewhere, the consumer discretionary sector (-1.5%) was unable to shake off the early weakness, which was due in part to Tesla (TSLA 360.56, -20.70, -5.43%) trading sharply lower after disappointing with its Q1 deliveries.

Outside of the S&P 500, the Russell 2000 (+0.7%) outperformed, while the S&P Mid Cap 400 (+0.1%) finished flattish.

Ultimately, the major averages finished with solid week-to-date gains, though previous weakness keeps the indices below their 200-day moving averages. This week's strength was largely a result of a short-term improvement in sentiment regarding geopolitical hostilities and a reaction to oversold conditions, but uncertainty around the situation in Iran and elevated oil prices keep the market on a cautious footing heading into the long weekend.

Next week will also feature a heavy slate of economic data that includes several key inflation readings.

To that point, the market will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.

U.S. Treasuries recorded slim gains on Thursday, putting together a resilient showing from a modestly lower start to the trading day. The 2-year note yield finished unchanged at 3.80% (-12 basis points week-to-date), and the 10-year note yield settled down one basis point to 4.31% (-13 basis points week-to-date). 

Reviewing today's data:

• Weekly Initial Claims 202K (Briefing.com consensus 215; Prior was revised to 211K from 210K, Weekly Continuing Claims 1.841 mln; Prior was revised to 1.816 mln from 1.819 mln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that initial claims remain near the 200,000 mark, reflecting a low-firing environment.
• February Trade Balance -$57.3 bln (Briefing.com consensus -$55.8 bln); Prior was revised to -$54.7 bln from -$54.5 bln
  
  • The key takeaway from the report is that February imports grew more than exports even though February nonfuel import prices (+1.1%) increased at a slower pace than non-agricultural export prices (+1.7%).